297 Madison 5270 · St. Paul, AR 72740

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1996 0.62 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Country home located in the Japton area offering approximately 2,160 square feet of potential. The newer addition is ready for electrical and plumbing installation, providing an excellent opportunity to customize the space to your needs. Features include log construction, log siding accents, a spacious deck, and beautiful scenic views. With some finishing work, this property could truly shine.

Key facts

• Newer addition
• Log construction
• Spacious deck

Tags

• NEWER ADDITION
• LOG CONSTRUCTION
• LOG SIDING ACCENTS
• SPACIOUS DECK
• SCENIC VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Located near schools

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water
• Home design: Single-story; Log siding
• Construction: Block foundation; Architectural, metal, and shingle roofing
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Deck; Partial fencing; Rural lot; County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Wood stove
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; None specified
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Huntsville School District (rural): math 35% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #141 of 238 in AR (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.02%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $84,858
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.14×
• Total profit: $225,614
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72740

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,416/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $859

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $109,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $150,000
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,416 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,416 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,416
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $4,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville School District
• NCES district ID: 0508130
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,770
• Composite: 26.72/100
• National rank: #7146
• State rank: #141 of 238 in AR

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,226

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,655 people
• By 2030: 15,418 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 14,824 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 14,198 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 12,827 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 10,871 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 19.9% · R 78.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+49.1 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 57.73%
• Current HPI: 353.404
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-21.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $150,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $190,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,416 · +65.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.