144 Thousand Oaks Cir · Jackson, MS 39212

$128,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1978 10,018 sqft lot $101/sqft · 8% above area Est $119k · 7% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in Brookhollow Pl.! Come view this show-stopping home today before it's too late!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Hinds County School District (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #70 of 130 in MS (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,320 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.68%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,074
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: 7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 Thousand Oaks Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-2%)	12mo	$175,500	$142	85
740 Gresham Cv	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+7%)	6mo	$165,000	$122	71
2128 Thousand Oaks Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+8%)	15mo	$93,500	$68	68
1143 Oak Glen Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+12%)	10mo	$70,000	$49	62
1124 Oak Glen Pl	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,401 (+11%)	11mo	$142,000	$101	60
1508 Cedar Pine Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-8%)	22mo	$56,000	$48	54
1732 Brookhollow Cir	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,089 (-14%)	2mo	$85,000	$78	52
5233 Brookhollow Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+12%)	22mo	$49,700	$35	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,474
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $17,289
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $941/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $236	+0% $200	+5% $163	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $149	+0% $200	+5% $250	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $232	base $200	+0.5pp $166	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2107 Thousand Oaks Dr Unit A Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1182	$950	$0.80	22d	1	0.16mi
4954 Hanging Oak Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,215	$1.12	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $128,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $128,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    status Active 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in Brookhollow Pl.! Come view this show-stopping home today before it's too late!

17. 2026-04-25
    historical 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in Brookhollow Pl.! Come view this show-stopping home today before it's too late!

18. 2026-03-26
    price $128,000 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in Brookhollow Pl.! Come view this show-stopping home today before it's too late!

19. 2026-03-22
    listed $139,000 Active 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Updated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in Brookhollow Pl.! Come view this show-stopping home today before it's too late!

20. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus
21. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus
22. 1990-11-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $941 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,011 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$941
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$76
• After-tax cash flow: $2,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hinds County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801860
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,335
• Composite: 24.02/100
• National rank: #7771
• State rank: #70 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $128,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-22 Listed $139,000 MLSU
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-11-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $941 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.