604 Juarez St · Lockhart, TX 78644

$139,499

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,099 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 416 Days on market

Built 1935 4,299 sqft lot $127/sqft · 43% below area Est $245k · 43% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE TWO BEDROOM HOME! We have this 2 Bedroom, 1 bathroom home in Lockhart, TX! Modify this home to your liking and invest in your future. This residence is an excellent opportunity to embrace a relaxed and convenient lifestyle. This prime location puts you between San Antonio and Austin, TX! You will easily enjoy Texas' landmarks, nature, parks and rivers. Being sold AS IS but has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 4,299 sq ft lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 416 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $964 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 416 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,759 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 416 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,380
• List price: $139,499
• Delta: -43.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
717 S Commerce St	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,090 (-1%)	8mo	$180,000	$165	77
712 Neches St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+5%)	7mo	$80,000	$69	72
905 Luann Ln	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,089 (-1%)	6mo	$119,000	$109	67
721 Chihuahua St	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-9%)	11mo	$255,000	$255	62
904 Chihuahua St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,067 (-3%)	12mo	$284,900	$267	58
902 Chihuahua St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-9%)	7mo	$259,900	$260	57
810 Mora St	0.29mi	2/2.0	969 (-12%)	7mo	$209,900	$217	57
1410 E Market St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,067 (-3%)	8mo	$75,000	$70	57
1409 4th St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,062 (-3%)	6mo	$219,000	$206	54
512 San Saba St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+15%)	13mo	$269,990	$214	49
601 Clearfork St	0.68mi	2/1.0	967 (-12%)	8mo	$134,500	$139	42
1387 E Market St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (+11%)	12mo	$150,000	$123	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,717
• Equity at exit: $20,800

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,796
• Equity at exit: $12,061

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,617/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $139,499

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
703 San Saba St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$1,700	$2.09	4d	1	0.11mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit B Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	43d	1	0.19mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit A Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	43d	1	0.19mi
609 Cottonwood St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	1084	$1,295	$1.19	43d	1	0.24mi
100 N Brazos St Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1299	$1,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.36mi
750 S Main St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,850	$1.34	43d	1	0.41mi
63 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,595	$1.09	2d	1	0.47mi
61 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	4d	1	0.49mi
67 Trinity Cir Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1253	$1,700	$1.36	24d	1	0.49mi
908 S Guadalupe St Lockhart, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	43d	1	0.65mi
1204 Blackjack St Unit B Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	0.73mi
1001 Guadalupe St Lockhart, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,061	$1.23	1d	1	0.76mi
115 S Frio St Unit H Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	43d	1	0.81mi
115 S Frio St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	4d	1	0.81mi
139 Elm St Unit 203 Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.0	934	$700	$0.75	24d	1	0.84mi
139 Elm St Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.0	738	$750	$1.02	43d	2	0.84mi
329 Flores St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	43d	1	0.85mi
518 Laredo St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,050	$1.46	43d	1	0.87mi
728 W San Antonio St Unit 730 A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,000	$1.06	4d	1	0.90mi
728 W San Antonio St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,125	$1.19	4d	1	0.90mi
1010 W Live Oak St Unit B Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.5	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	1.06mi
1010 Crockett St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	2.5	1140	$1,200	$1.05	22d	1	1.07mi
1010 Crockett St Lockhart, TX	2.0	3.0	1140	$1,200	$1.05	20d	1	1.07mi
1510 S Medina St Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	43d	1	1.09mi
1502 Oak Knoll Ln Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,050	$1.48	43d	1	1.19mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	4d	1	1.20mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	11d	1	1.20mi
1100 Monte Vista Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,850	$1.60	17d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,499 Active 416 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,499 Active 415 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,499 Active 414 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,499 Active 413 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,499 Active 411 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,499 Active 407 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,499 Active 406 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,499 Active 405 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,499 Active 402 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,499 Active 401 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,499 Active 400 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,499 Active 399 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,499 Active 398 DOM
14. 2026-02-19
    price $139,499 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    NICE TWO BEDROOM HOME! We have this 2 Bedroom, 1 bathroom home in Lockhart, TX! Modify this home to your liking and invest in your future. This residence is an excellent opportunity to embrace a relaxed and convenient lifestyle. This prime location puts you between San Antonio and Austin, TX! You will easily enjoy Texas' landmarks, nature, parks and rivers. Being sold AS IS but has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

15. 2025-04-28
    listed $145,499 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    NICE TWO BEDROOM HOME! We have this 2 Bedroom, 1 bathroom home in Lockhart, TX! Modify this home to your liking and invest in your future. This residence is an excellent opportunity to embrace a relaxed and convenient lifestyle. This prime location puts you between San Antonio and Austin, TX! You will easily enjoy Texas' landmarks, nature, parks and rivers. Being sold AS IS but has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

16. 2007-05-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,617 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,617 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$2,617
• − Insurance: −$697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable loss: −$357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$86
• After-tax cash flow: $1,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $139,499 HARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $145,499 HARMLS
• 2007-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,617 · -32.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.