244 American Canyon Rd #3 · American Canyon, CA 94503

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Manufactured · 208 Days on market

Built 1971 $136/sqft · 5% below area Est $146k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location in Napa Olympia Nobile park, Built in 1971 this 2 bedroom 1 bath home is in need of updating. Live and update as you go

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1971
• Listed 208 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.2% in American Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#133 in CA, #4,684 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 16% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $139k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.21%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,428
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -5.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
244 American Canyon Rd #102	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (0%)	4mo	$150,000	$147	88
244 American Canyon Rd #189	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+2%)	2mo	$140,681	$135	84
244 American Canyon Rd #133	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+4%)	17mo	$188,000	$177	76
244 American Canyon Rd #83	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+2%)	22mo	$155,000	$149	74
3000 3000 Broadway St Apt 92 St #92	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+6%)	7mo	$145,000	$134	74
244 American Canyon Rd #81	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+6%)	24mo	$172,118	$159	66
244 American Cyn #131	0.11mi	2/1.0	875 (-14%)	22mo	$140,000	$160	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $66,784
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $173,278
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94503

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $1,402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Toscana Dr American Canyon, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1466	$3,244	$2.21	14d	5	0.22mi
300 Swan Way Vallejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1134	$2,775	$2.45	21d	1	0.62mi
2525 Flosden Rd #16 American Canyon, CA	3.0	2.0	1244	$2,795	$2.25	14d	1	0.64mi
137 Imelda St Unit 3BR/1BA Vallejo, CA	3.0	1.0	1080	$3,250	$3.01	14d	1	0.85mi
123 David Ct Vallejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,149	$2.38	14d	1	0.95mi
424 Corcoran Ave Vallejo, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	14d	1	1.02mi
125 Hibiscus Ct Vallejo, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,709	$2.71	44d	1	1.34mi
165 Georgetown Ct Vallejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,695	$2.36	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2025-11-20
    price $139,000 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    Great Location in Napa Olympia Nobile park, Built in 1971 this 2 bedroom 1 bath home is in need of updating. Live and update as you go

15. 2025-11-19
    listed $120,000 Active 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    Great Location in Napa Olympia Nobile park, Built in 1971 this 2 bedroom 1 bath home is in need of updating. Live and update as you go

16. 2015-12-31
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    This 2 bedroom 1 bath Mobile is located in a Family Park. Large Porch for entertaining. Needs a little updating (Carpet, counter top, etc..). But ready for you call Home and add your personal touches. Has 2 sheds for storage.

17. 2015-12-04
    historical Contingent 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    This 2 bedroom 1 bath Mobile is located in a Family Park. Large Porch for entertaining. Needs a little updating (Carpet, counter top, etc..). But ready for you call Home and add your personal touches. Has 2 sheds for storage.

18. 2015-11-17
    listed $50,000 Active 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    This 2 bedroom 1 bath Mobile is located in a Family Park. Large Porch for entertaining. Needs a little updating (Carpet, counter top, etc..). But ready for you call Home and add your personal touches. Has 2 sheds for storage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,870
• − Management: −$2,870
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $15,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,727
• After-tax cash flow: $13,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — American Canyon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #4684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: American Canyon, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 21,841
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,841
• Household income: $121,088
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 486.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 33% Hispanic / Latino 31% White 21% Two or more races 15% Black 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 15% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.47%
• Current HPI: 366.9139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+178.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $139,000 BAREIS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $120,000 BAREIS
• 2015-12-31 Sold (MLS) $50,000 BAREIS
• 2015-12-04 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2015-11-17 Listed $50,000 BAREIS