507 Illinois Ave · Harrisburg, NE 69345

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2011 ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2011
• Listed 147 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#467 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Banner County Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #187 of 245 in NE (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $784 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Banner County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.83%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $18,247
• Equity at exit: $32,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $55,631
• Equity at exit: $42,685

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69345

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $940/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $301	+0% $273	+5% $245	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $182	-5% $228	+0% $273	+5% $319	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $298	base $273	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $99,000 Pending 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    price $99,000
17. 2026-02-20
    price $105,000
18. 2026-02-06
    status Active
19. 2026-01-21
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-07
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$773/yr (+$64/mo · 82.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$940
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,108
• − Management: −$1,108
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$426
• After-tax cash flow: $2,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Banner County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100067
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,015
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7830
• State rank: #187 of 245 in NE

Livability — Harrisburg

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #18532

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harrisburg, NE
• Population (ZIP): 448

Population outlook (Banner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 964 people
• By 2030: 1,033 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 1,126 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 1,208 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 1,491 · +54.7%
• By 2100: 1,715 · +77.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Banner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+81.3) · D 8.8% · R 90.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: -68.8pp · 2024: -81.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+81.3 2020: R+77.6 2016: R+86.4 2012: R+70.7 2008: R+68.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Current HPI: 134.3006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $99,000 WNBOR
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $105,000 WNBOR
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — WNBOR
• 2026-01-21 Pending — WNBOR
• 2026-01-07 Listed $115,000 WNBOR

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2021): $940 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.