1006 44th Avenue Dr E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$189,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1974 4,356 sqft lot Est $135k · 40% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come View this 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath Home located in the 55+ Land Owned Community of Tidevue Estates. Not a Full-Time Resident? The Community Amenities & Convenience offer great rental potential. This Home offers a 1 Car Garage with workshop area & carport for additional parking. Community Heated Pool, Veteran's Park & Recreation facilities all included in the annual fee of $456. Tidevue Estates has many Activities to offer! Play a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take the water aerobics classes or get those workouts in at the Fitness area. Visit the card & billiards room. Golfer? Join the League. Convenient location; Shopping, Ellenton Outlet Mall, quick access to I-75 or Gulf Beaches. Welcome to Tidevue Estates! The Opportunity is Here Waiting!

Key facts

• Epoxy driveway
• Open floor plan
• New metal roof

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW METAL ROOF
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• EPOXY DRIVEWAY
• SOLAR-HEATED COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey furnished; Association fee includes pool, escrow reserves fund, and recreational facilities
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA: Tidevue Estates Civic Organization; Monthly HOA fee $50 (annual $600); Association approval required; Association amenities include pool, fitness center, laundry, park, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court, recreation facilities; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Golf carts OK; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Faces southwest
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre
• Exterior features: Awnings; French doors; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Decorative fireplace; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $727 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,517/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $190k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.41%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	91
4207 13th St E	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	87
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$129	84
4508 14th St E	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	84
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	80
1005 45th Ave E	0.01mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	78
4212 13th St E	0.17mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	73
1432 41st Ave E	0.35mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-5%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	72
4214 15th St E	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	70
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.26mi	2/2.0	963 (-9%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	67
1204 43rd Ave E	0.10mi	2/2.0	903 (-14%)	4mo	$73,500	$81	66
4314 12th Street Ct E	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+13%)	2mo	$105,000	$88	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $15,546
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $73,197
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,637/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $727

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,597

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4612 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,000	$2.48	23d	1	0.23mi
4711 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	23d	1	0.28mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	23d	1	0.35mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	3d	1	0.42mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	3d	15	0.54mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	3d	13	0.75mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	23d	1	1.12mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	1d	67	1.23mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-02-13
    listed $189,900 Active
16. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Come View this 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath Home located in the 55+ Land Owned Community of Tidevue Estates. Not a Full-Time Resident? The Community Amenities & Convenience offer great rental potential. This Home offers a 1 Car Garage with workshop area & carport for additional parking. Community Heated Pool, Veteran's Park & Recreation facilities all included in the annual fee of $456. Tidevue Estates has many Activities to offer! Play a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take the water aerobics classes or get those workouts in at the Fitness area. Visit the card & billiards room. Golfer? Join the League. Convenient location; Shopping, Ellenton Outlet Mall, quick access to I-75 or Gulf Beaches. Welcome to Tidevue Estates! The Opportunity is Here Waiting!

17. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus $50,000

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Come View this 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath Home located in the 55+ Land Owned Community of Tidevue Estates. Not a Full-Time Resident? The Community Amenities & Convenience offer great rental potential. This Home offers a 1 Car Garage with workshop area & carport for additional parking. Community Heated Pool, Veteran's Park & Recreation facilities all included in the annual fee of $456. Tidevue Estates has many Activities to offer! Play a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take the water aerobics classes or get those workouts in at the Fitness area. Visit the card & billiards room. Golfer? Join the League. Convenient location; Shopping, Ellenton Outlet Mall, quick access to I-75 or Gulf Beaches. Welcome to Tidevue Estates! The Opportunity is Here Waiting!

18. 2020-07-14
    status Pending 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Come View this 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath Home located in the 55+ Land Owned Community of Tidevue Estates. Not a Full-Time Resident? The Community Amenities & Convenience offer great rental potential. This Home offers a 1 Car Garage with workshop area & carport for additional parking. Community Heated Pool, Veteran's Park & Recreation facilities all included in the annual fee of $456. Tidevue Estates has many Activities to offer! Play a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take the water aerobics classes or get those workouts in at the Fitness area. Visit the card & billiards room. Golfer? Join the League. Convenient location; Shopping, Ellenton Outlet Mall, quick access to I-75 or Gulf Beaches. Welcome to Tidevue Estates! The Opportunity is Here Waiting!

19. 2020-07-07
    listed $65,000 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Come View this 2 Bedroom, 1.5 Bath Home located in the 55+ Land Owned Community of Tidevue Estates. Not a Full-Time Resident? The Community Amenities & Convenience offer great rental potential. This Home offers a 1 Car Garage with workshop area & carport for additional parking. Community Heated Pool, Veteran's Park & Recreation facilities all included in the annual fee of $456. Tidevue Estates has many Activities to offer! Play a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take the water aerobics classes or get those workouts in at the Fitness area. Visit the card & billiards room. Golfer? Join the League. Convenient location; Shopping, Ellenton Outlet Mall, quick access to I-75 or Gulf Beaches. Welcome to Tidevue Estates! The Opportunity is Here Waiting!

20. 2002-03-12
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,637 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,637 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,637
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,416
• − Management: −$2,416
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $6,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $7,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+287.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-07 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,637 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.