591 Hill Ln · Bracey, VA 23919

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2003 1.25 ac lot Est $311k · 29% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked inside a sought-after lakeside community, this charming home offers the perfect blend of relaxation and convenience. Enjoy nearby water access just minutes away, plus close proximity to local hotspots, waterfront restaurants, and some of the area's best-known fishing holes. Featuring a new roof, this property is ready to transform into your dream lake getaway, rental investment, or full-time retreat. Whether you're searching for peaceful weekends or an income-producing opportunity, this home puts lake life right at your fingertips.

Key facts

• Lakeside community
• Water access
• New roof

Tags

• LAKESIDE COMMUNITY
• WATER ACCESS
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Champion Forest Shores; Zoned residential
• HOA & community: Approx. $22.92 monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Double wide mobile home; One level
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Garden; Front porch; Side porch; Paved road access; Lake Gaston nearby/view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storm windows; Garden view; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Basement with exterior entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,379 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,395
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Forest Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	7mo	$205,000	$131	81
1705 Great Creek Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	1mo	$685,000	$423	71
46 Brookstone Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-0%)	4mo	$254,900	$169	66
291 Red Fox Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-0%)	0mo	$460,000	$304	65
845 Anchor Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-0%)	16mo	$309,900	$205	57
285 Forest Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+14%)	13mo	$628,000	$364	56
845 Anchor Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-0%)	16mo	$309,900	$205	56
37 Brookstone Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,620 (+7%)	6mo	$184,000	$114	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $25,475
• Equity at exit: $79,922

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $90,554
• Equity at exit: $110,067

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $515/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,658

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $390	-5% $328	+0% $265	+5% $203	+10% $141
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $187	+0% $265	+5% $344	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $321	base $265	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,288/yr (+$107/mo · 250.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$515
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $3,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-05-09 Listed $219,900 RVLG

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $515 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.