Oxford Plan · Heartland, TX 75114

$244,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily · 174 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 174 days

🏗️ New construction. The $244,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,073.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Martin El (math 41% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 71% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,073
• List price: $244,999
• Delta: -12.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1132 Colt Creek Way	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-2%)	3mo	$217,499	$130	79
2236 Starstruck Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,801 (+6%)	1mo	$265,000	$147	63
2817 Hudson Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (+5%)	1mo	$274,000	$153	62
2226 Starstruck Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,801 (+6%)	3mo	$278,999	$155	61
3902 Spencer Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-10%)	3mo	$255,000	$166	60
2992 Cedeno Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,577 (-8%)	2mo	$250,000	$159	54
2921 Bronte Blvd	0.58mi	4/2.5	1,880 (+10%)	3mo	$219,999	$117	51
2718 Trail Ride Way	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	1mo	$223,499	$152	51
2406 Horsemanship Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	1mo	$217,999	$148	50
3104 Kirby Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,839 (+8%)	2mo	$274,000	$149	50
2229 Starstruck Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,952 (+14%)	1mo	$286,999	$147	49
2530 Smoke Passage St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	3mo	$209,549	$142	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-57,947
• Equity at exit: $41,611

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-66,754
• Equity at exit: $24,129

Cash invested: $78,141 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 142 active · 100 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,000 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,186/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $250,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-104	+0% $-200	+5% $-297	+10% $-393
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-287	+0% $-200	+5% $-114	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-129	base $-200	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,768
• Closing costs: $8,372
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1734 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,095	$1.28	82d	1	0.19mi
1734 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,095	$1.28	76d	1	0.19mi
1275 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,750	$1.36	84d	1	0.24mi
1264 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	70d	1	0.24mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	98d	1	0.29mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,709	$1.03	83d	1	0.30mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	139d	1	0.31mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	120d	1	0.31mi
2911 S Griffin Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,900	$1.48	26d	1	0.34mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	139d	1	0.34mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	120d	1	0.35mi
2236 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,260	$1.08	0d	1	0.36mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.36mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	139d	1	0.36mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.37mi
3909 Chesapeake Ln Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,300	$1.31	26d	1	0.38mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.38mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	120d	1	0.41mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.41mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	26d	1	0.43mi
2710 Trail Ride Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	56d	1	0.44mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	120d	1	0.45mi
2233 Starstruck Ct Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,299	$1.11	0d	1	0.45mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,800	$0.97	76d	1	0.45mi
1706 Horizons Hl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	12d	1	0.49mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	87d	1	0.50mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	120d	1	0.50mi
1817 Mallen Farm Rdg Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	4d	1	0.53mi
2938 Montrose Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	20d	1	0.55mi
2938 Montrose Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	26d	1	0.55mi
3942 Surrey Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,995	$1.59	3d	1	0.58mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	139d	1	0.59mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	139d	1	0.60mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	139d	1	0.62mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	99d	1	0.62mi
1925 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,850	$1.46	72d	1	0.63mi
2915 Acacia Dr Heartland, TX	4.0	2.5	1982	$2,100	$1.06	5d	1	0.63mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2232	$3,100	$1.39	63d	1	0.70mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2232	$2,600	$1.16	20d	1	0.70mi
3221 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,450	$1.47	74d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $244,999 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $244,999 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $244,999 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $244,999 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $244,999 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $244,999 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $244,999 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $244,999 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $244,999 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $244,999 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $244,999 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $244,999 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $244,999 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $244,999 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    pricedays on market $244,999 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $249,499 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $249,499 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $249,499 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $249,499 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $249,499 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $249,499 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $249,499 Active 144 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $249,499 Active 143 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $249,499 Active 142 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $249,499 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $249,499 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $249,499 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $249,499 Active 138 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $249,499 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $249,499 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $249,499 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $249,499 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $249,499 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $249,499 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $249,499 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $249,499 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $249,499 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $249,499 Active 128 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $249,499 Active 126 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $249,499 Active 125 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $249,499 Active 124 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $249,499 Active 123 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $249,499 Active 120 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $249,499 Active 119 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $249,499 Active 118 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $249,499 Active 117 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $249,499 Active 115 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,499 Active 113 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,499 Active 112 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,499 Active 111 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,632
• − Property taxes: −$4,186
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$8,118
• Taxable loss: −$7,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,747
• After-tax cash flow: $-657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Heartland, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can improve the interior and make the home more attractive to buyers/tenants. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a broader market. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W A Martin El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $249,499 Zillow
• 2024-10-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-03 Listed $252,999 Zillow