8098 Mcgowan Rd · Copenhagen, NY 13626

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1996 1.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Vacant land with a pond. This property is a foreclosure. Has nice scenic views. Rural Road. Excellent area for privacy.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Rural road
• Scenic views

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• RURAL ROAD
• PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possible use: agricultural or horses

Exterior

• Parking: No driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Single-story property
• Exterior features: Rectangular, rural lot with a pond; County road frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Level topography

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $870 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#914 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Lowville Academy & Central School District (town): math 51% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $940 appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $29,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.28%
• DSCR: 6.53
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.05×
• Total profit: $59,254
• Equity at exit: $13,715

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.84×
• Total profit: $133,058
• Equity at exit: $21,313

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13626

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $30,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $30,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $30,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $30,000 Active
16. 2018-05-07
    soldstatus $83,000
17. 2013-06-03
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $10,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,542
• After-tax cash flow: $7,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowville Academy & Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617820
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2773
• State rank: #345 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copenhagen

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #17891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,322

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,126 people
• By 2030: 25,354 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 23,359 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 20,927 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 15,533 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 10,215 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 6% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+8.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Current HPI: 303.3172
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $30,000 CNYIS
• 2018-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,835 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.