14538 Broadbury Pond Rd · Rosharon, TX 77583

$265,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,803 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,122 sqft lot $147/sqft · at area comps Est $256k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfort and style in this beautiful 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2½ baths. The open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living space perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms and a large gameroom upstairs provide plenty of room for family and guests. A wonderful blend of function and charm—this home is designed to fit your lifestyle. Call today for a private showing!

Key facts

• 7,122 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-40/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,688
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 3.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16203 1st St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (-6%)	24mo	$249,900	$148	58
1100 E Fm 1462 Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,862 (+3%)	14mo	$550,000	$295	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-49,120
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-66,295
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,413

Max offer price $264,522

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $265,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $265,000 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $275,000 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Discover comfort and style in this beautiful 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2½ baths. The open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living space perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms and a large gameroom upstairs provide plenty of room for family and guests. A wonderful blend of function and charm—this home is designed to fit your lifestyle. Call today for a private showing!

16. 2026-03-10
    price $284,900 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Discover comfort and style in this beautiful 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2½ baths. The open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living space perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms and a large gameroom upstairs provide plenty of room for family and guests. A wonderful blend of function and charm—this home is designed to fit your lifestyle. Call today for a private showing!

17. 2026-01-20
    price $289,900 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Discover comfort and style in this beautiful 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2½ baths. The open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living space perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms and a large gameroom upstairs provide plenty of room for family and guests. A wonderful blend of function and charm—this home is designed to fit your lifestyle. Call today for a private showing!

18. 2025-12-19
    price $294,900 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Discover comfort and style in this beautiful 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2½ baths. The open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living space perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms and a large gameroom upstairs provide plenty of room for family and guests. A wonderful blend of function and charm—this home is designed to fit your lifestyle. Call today for a private showing!

19. 2025-12-19
    price $249,900 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Discover comfort and style in this beautiful 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2½ baths. The open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living space perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms and a large gameroom upstairs provide plenty of room for family and guests. A wonderful blend of function and charm—this home is designed to fit your lifestyle. Call today for a private showing!

20. 2025-11-21
    listed $300,000 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Discover comfort and style in this beautiful 2-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2½ baths. The open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living space perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is conveniently located downstairs for added privacy, while the additional bedrooms and a large gameroom upstairs provide plenty of room for family and guests. A wonderful blend of function and charm—this home is designed to fit your lifestyle. Call today for a private showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,073
• After-tax cash flow: $1,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and minor updates such as painting and landscaping can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves home automation and energy efficiency, attracting tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves home automation and energy efficiency, attracting tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosharon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosharon, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $284,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $300,000 HARMLS