38833 Rambler Ave · Palmdale, CA 93551

$395,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 280 Days on market

Built 1953 7,401 sqft lot Est $409k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled duplex in East Palmdale offering two 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom units. Each unit has been upgraded with new flooring, kitchens, bathrooms, and modern finishes throughout. Recent improvements include new AC units, new water heaters, and a new roof. All work was completed with permits and is fully up to code. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and commuter routes, this property is a turnkey investment with low maintenance and excellent cash flow potential.

Key facts

• Remodeled duplex
• New kitchens
• New flooring

Tags

• REMODELED DUPLEX
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHENS
• NEW BATHROOMS
• MODERN FINISHES
• NEW AC UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total of 2 units on the property; Living area and lot size sourced from appraiser
• HOA & community: Biking trails nearby; Dog park in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Duplex; One story; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Year built (public records)
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot approximately 0–1 unit/acre

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Single-level home; Front entry; All bedrooms on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $281/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $395k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.09%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $409,480
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
835 E Avenue Q	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,412 (0%)	1mo	$410,000	$290	96
38857 Rambler Ave	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,412 (0%)	4mo	$350,000	$248	94
38853 9th St E	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,412 (0%)	10mo	$410,000	$290	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-31,076
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $7,523
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 16.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,895 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,354/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$818
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,184

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $785	-5% $673	+0% $562	+5% $450	+10% $338
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $408	+0% $562	+5% $715	+10% $869
Rate	-1.0pp $761	-0.5pp $662	base $562	+0.5pp $459	+1.0pp $355

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$3,896
Total (2 units)			$3,895

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38907 Rambler Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	1770	$2,100	$1.19	19d	1	0.09mi
38594 Friendly Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	988	$2,700	$2.73	5d	1	0.28mi
38594 Friendly Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	988	$2,600	$2.63	2d	1	0.28mi
509 East Avenue Q-2 Unit B Palmdale, CA	2.0	2.0	965	$1,800	$1.87	2d	1	0.32mi
38604 10th St E Unit 5 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	2d	1	0.34mi
504 East Avenue Q3 Apt 3 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,650	$1.43	2d	1	0.38mi
454 East Avenue Q3 Unit 8 Palmdale, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$2,000	$2.23	2d	1	0.40mi
518 East Avenue Q4 Unit 5 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,150	$2.46	2d	1	0.41mi
38722 11th St E Palmdale, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1011	$1,795	$1.78	2d	5	0.41mi
38572 10th Pl E Apt 4 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	2d	1	0.44mi
38707 12th St E Apt 1 Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,950	$1.62	2d	1	0.49mi
38707 12th St E Apt 8 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,550	$1.41	2d	1	0.49mi
38707 12th St E Apt 8 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,550	$1.41	20d	1	0.49mi
38707 12th St E Palmdale, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1150	$1,550	$1.35	2d	3	0.49mi
38728 12th St E Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$2,800	$2.86	3d	1	0.52mi
38501 Larkin Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	996	$2,650	$2.66	3d	1	0.54mi
38501 Larkin Ave Unit 38501-4 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	972	$1,894	$1.95	2d	1	0.54mi
38501 Larkin Ave Unit 4 Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	972	$1,750	$1.80	2d	1	0.54mi
38508 Sumac Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,300	$2.04	2d	1	0.58mi
38457 Sumac Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$2,900	$2.58	2d	1	0.64mi
38225 9th St E Unit 1 Palmdale, CA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	2d	1	0.81mi
38232 Delacour Dr Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1328	$3,000	$2.26	2d	1	0.99mi
38728 17th St E Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	921	$2,050	$2.23	2d	1	1.02mi
37938 Palm Vista Ave Unit A Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	1223	$2,150	$1.76	2d	1	1.17mi
38705 20th St E Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,895	$1.65	2d	1	1.19mi
38318 17th St E Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	1053	$2,650	$2.52	2d	1	1.23mi
38657 Ladelle Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$2,600	$2.56	2d	1	1.39mi
38657 Ladelle Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$2,800	$2.76	17d	1	1.39mi
38441 5th St W Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	729	$2,395	$3.29	2d	15	1.45mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $395,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $395,000 Active 266 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 262 DOM
15. 2025-09-13
    listed $395,000 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled duplex in East Palmdale offering two 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom units. Each unit has been upgraded with new flooring, kitchens, bathrooms, and modern finishes throughout. Recent improvements include new AC units, new water heaters, and a new roof. All work was completed with permits and is fully up to code. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and commuter routes, this property is a turnkey investment with low maintenance and excellent cash flow potential.

16. 2025-09-11
    listed $395,000 Active
17. 2024-06-26
    price $410,000
18. 2007-02-17
    historical
19. 2006-09-14
    historical
20. 2006-09-14
    historical
21. 2006-09-14
    historical
22. 2006-07-08
    listed $335,000
23. 2006-07-08
    listed $335,000
24. 2006-07-06
    listed
25. 2006-07-06
    listed $335,000
26. 2003-07-21
    soldstatus $108,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,354 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,354 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$3,354
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,739
• − Management: −$3,739
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable income: $316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$76
• After-tax cash flow: $6,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+264.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-13 Listed $395,000 AVMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $395,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $410,000 AVMLS
• 2007-02-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-09-14 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2006-09-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-09-14 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2006-07-08 Listed $335,000 CRMLS
• 2006-07-08 Listed $335,000 CRMLS
• 2006-07-06 Listed $335,000 AVMLS
• 2006-07-06 Listed — TheMLS
• 2003-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $108,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,354 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.