207 S Avery Ave · Syracuse, NY 13204

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1900 10,140 sqft lot $116/sqft · 6% above area Est $236k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION-LOCATION-LOCATION- DIRECTLY ACROSS FROM PASS ARBORETUM AND JUST A FEW YARDS FROM THE NEWLY UNVEILED POLICE MONUMENT- THIS IS A ONE OF A KIND TIPP HILL COLONIAL ON A DOUBLE LOT, FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS, 1 1/2 BATHS, HUGE LIVING ROOM WITH EAT-IN COUNTRY STYLE KITCHEN, FORMAL DINING ROOM, GLEAMING HARDWOODS AND NATURAL WOODWORK, ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH, 3 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE DECK AND SO MUCH MORE. MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE. SELLING TO SETTLE ESTATE. -SELLER HAS SET A DEADLINE FOR OFFERS= 12 NOON TUESDAY MAY 12TH.

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Formal dining room
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN COUNTRY STYLE KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GLEAMING HARDWOODS
• NATURAL WOODWORK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Stone foundation; Asphalt roof; Copper plumbing
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Porch; Enclosed porch; Irregular residential lot; 78 x 127 lot dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms including a bonus room and den
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Den; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Kitchen island; Natural woodwork; Workshop; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Syracuse Latin School (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 642 students, 42% FRL); Expeditionary Learning Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 170 students, 76% FRL); Institute of Technology At Syracuse Central (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 581 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,754/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2073% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $250k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,415 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,912
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: 5.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 Tompkins St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,118 (-2%)	9mo	$272,000	$128	78
505 Tompkins St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,852 (-14%)	9mo	$150,000	$81	49
110 Draper Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,880 (-13%)	16mo	$237,500	$126	38
121 Hayden Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-14%)	18mo	$100,000	$54	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $135,190
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $428,848
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13204

• Home prices YoY: 31.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,556/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,955

Max offer price $221,896

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-88	+0% $-159	+5% $-229	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-228	+0% $-159	+5% $-89	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-95	base $-159	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
349 Bryant Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	15d	1	0.24mi
315 Grant Ave #17 Syracuse, NY	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,275	$0.86	15d	1	1.07mi
1110 Bellevue Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1449	$1,500	$1.04	45d	1	1.10mi
318 Kellogg St Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1523	$1,675	$1.10	45d	1	1.22mi
318 Kellogg St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1523	$1,650	$1.08	45d	1	1.22mi
326 Holland St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	2100	$1,825	$0.87	45d	1	1.29mi
229 Kellogg St Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	2046	$1,300	$0.64	23d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 516-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $249,900 Active 516-char remark
3. 2003-10-02
   soldstatus $93,000
4. 2002-05-29
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,890 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,334/yr (+$111/mo · 85.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,556
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$6,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,534
• After-tax cash flow: $-368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,440
• Household income: $45,351
• Rent vs Own: 70.8% rent · 29.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2073.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.14%
• Current HPI: 416.7272
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.24%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+194.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $249,900 CNYIS
• 2003-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,556 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.