649 Fair Rd · Sidney, OH 45365

$92,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1920 3,920 sqft lot Est $179k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Value in Sidney. Property offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed as 1616sqft PRC. Large open front porch. Detached 1 car garage with shed attached. Large living room. Hardwood floors and original woodwork throughout. Unfinished basement, newer hvac. HUD CASE #413-611594 HUD homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.0% in Sidney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in OH, #3,412 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities D.
• Sidney City (town): math 46% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #454 of 656 in OH (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 337 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.58%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 Center St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,618 (+0%)	1mo	$285,000	$176	80
747 Chestnut Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,548 (-4%)	6mo	$159,900	$103	78
518 Rauth St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,693 (+5%)	3mo	$195,000	$115	76
220 S Franklin	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,596 (-1%)	1mo	$42,000	$26	72
717 Taft St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,571 (-3%)	5mo	$150,000	$95	71
610 Fair Rd	0.08mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,468 (-9%)	3mo	$164,900	$112	70
418 S Wagner Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-7%)	5mo	$228,000	$151	68
716 Taft St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,792 (+11%)	1mo	$178,000	$99	59
109 E Water St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+12%)	5mo	$82,250	$45	51
544 Michigan St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,456 (-10%)	0mo	$145,000	$100	49
206 Charles Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-14%)	4mo	$224,000	$162	46
619 Michigan St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,840 (+14%)	5mo	$205,000	$111	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,689
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $27,241
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45365

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,601/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $828

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $318	+0% $292	+5% $265	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $244	+0% $292	+5% $339	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $315	base $292	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 S Main Ave Sidney, OH	3.0	1.0	1423	$1,400	$0.98	22d	1	0.42mi
803 S Main Ave Sidney, OH	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.42mi
803 S Main Ave Sidney, OH	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,030	$0.93	3d	1	0.42mi
314 Thompson St Sidney, OH	3.0	1.0	1352	$1,200	$0.89	3d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-02-18
   soldstatus $90,000
2. 2025-02-17
   soldstatus $90,000 Closed 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Nice Value in Sidney. Property offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed as 1616sqft PRC. Large open front porch. Detached 1 car garage with shed attached. Large living room. Hardwood floors and original woodwork throughout. Unfinished basement, newer hvac. HUD CASE #413-611594 HUD homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

3. 2024-12-11
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Nice Value in Sidney. Property offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed as 1616sqft PRC. Large open front porch. Detached 1 car garage with shed attached. Large living room. Hardwood floors and original woodwork throughout. Unfinished basement, newer hvac. HUD CASE #413-611594 HUD homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

4. 2024-12-11
   status Pending 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Nice Value in Sidney. Property offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed as 1616sqft PRC. Large open front porch. Detached 1 car garage with shed attached. Large living room. Hardwood floors and original woodwork throughout. Unfinished basement, newer hvac. HUD CASE #413-611594 HUD homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

5. 2024-11-27
   listed $92,000 Active 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Nice Value in Sidney. Property offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed as 1616sqft PRC. Large open front porch. Detached 1 car garage with shed attached. Large living room. Hardwood floors and original woodwork throughout. Unfinished basement, newer hvac. HUD CASE #413-611594 HUD homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

6. 2024-11-27
   listed $92,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Nice Value in Sidney. Property offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths and is listed as 1616sqft PRC. Large open front porch. Detached 1 car garage with shed attached. Large living room. Hardwood floors and original woodwork throughout. Unfinished basement, newer hvac. HUD CASE #413-611594 HUD homes are sold as-is. Room sizes have been estimated.

7. 2006-12-04
   soldstatus $89,700
8. 2006-11-30
   soldstatus $89,700 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Come & enjoy sitting outside on your 27x8 covered front porch or on the patio in the backyard with a privacy fence. You will appreciate the beautiful woodwork throughout this house including columns in the living room with gas fireplace and the gorgeous staircase with loft area. Large main bath on second floor with 3 bedrooms. Updates include house re-wired and new insulation blowed-in in 2002, new ceiling fans, light fixtures and front door. Garage re-wired also. Gas heater to stay in basement. Plenty of storage here! Living space in basement also.

9. 2006-04-11
   listed $87,500 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Come & enjoy sitting outside on your 27x8 covered front porch or on the patio in the backyard with a privacy fence. You will appreciate the beautiful woodwork throughout this house including columns in the living room with gas fireplace and the gorgeous staircase with loft area. Large main bath on second floor with 3 bedrooms. Updates include house re-wired and new insulation blowed-in in 2002, new ceiling fans, light fixtures and front door. Garage re-wired also. Gas heater to stay in basement. Plenty of storage here! Living space in basement also.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,601
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $2,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$522
• After-tax cash flow: $2,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sidney City
• NCES district ID: 3910003
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,974
• Composite: 41.55/100
• National rank: #3443
• State rank: #454 of 656 in OH

Livability — Sidney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3412

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sidney, OH
• County: Shelby · 44,840 people
• City population: 28,955
• Population (ZIP): 28,955
• Household income: $66,044
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.7

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,264 people
• By 2030: 45,935 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 42,786 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 38,981 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 30,225 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 21,273 · -55.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.8) · D 17.2% · R 82.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.4pp · 2024: -64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.8 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+60.6 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+36.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.62%
• Current HPI: 264.4532
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+2.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-17 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Dayton MLS
• 2024-12-11 Pending — WRIST
• 2024-12-11 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2024-11-27 Listed $92,000 WRIST
• 2024-11-27 Listed $92,000 Dayton MLS
• 2006-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $89,700 Public Records
• 2006-11-30 Sold (MLS) $89,700 WRIST
• 2006-04-11 Listed $87,500 WRIST

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,601 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.