2208 W Baseline Ave #107 · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$197,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Built 2004 Good condition Est $137k · 45% over ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious living meets exceptional amenities in this beautifully situated home on a huge corner lot! This fully furnished ground-set residence offers nearly 1,900 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms . The oversized primary suite includes a massive walk-in closet and a large en-suite bathroom complete with a convenient linen closet. The second bedroom is impressively sized--nearly double a standard room--perfect for guests, hobbies, or a shared space. Enjoy versatile living with two separate family rooms, a formal dining area, and an eat-in kitchen equipped with abundant cabinetry and a functional island--ideal for everyday living and entert

Key facts

• Huge corner lot
• Eat-in kitchen
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• HUGE CORNER LOT
• MASSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• TWO SEPARATE FAMILY ROOMS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Heated spa; Building area sourced from builder; Lot size sourced from assessor
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly $891); No association fees listed; Gated community with pool and community spa; Fitness center; Biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 4; 4-car garage with direct access and attached garage cabinets
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Misting system; Corner lot; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Furnished (see remarks); Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $198k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,370/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 686% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,575 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.01%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,656
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2208 W Baseline Ave #171	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+2%)	8mo	$94,500	$50	84
2208 W Baseline Ave #94	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-10%)	9mo	$122,500	$73	71
2208 W Baseline Ave #21	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-10%)	15mo	$154,900	$92	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,584
• Equity at exit: $29,448

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,197
• Equity at exit: $17,076

Cash invested: $55,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,036
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$247 /mo · $2,962/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $197,500

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,375
• Closing costs: $5,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3668 S Warner Dr Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	3.0	2264	$2,550	$1.13	24d	1	0.29mi
2611 W Gypsum Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.5	2001	$2,235	$1.12	2d	1	0.35mi
3454 S Warner Dr Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	24d	1	0.46mi
2101 S Yellow Wood #60 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1371	$2,600	$1.90	1d	1	0.93mi
11401 E Medina Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1986	$2,600	$1.31	17d	1	1.18mi
2043 S Thunderbird Dr Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,925	$1.43	24d	1	1.34mi
650 W 22nd Ave Apache Junction, AZ	4.0	2.0	1564	$2,635	$1.68	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,500 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,500 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,500 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,500 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,500 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,500 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,500 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $197,500 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $197,500 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,500 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,500 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,500 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,500 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    status Active
15. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-19
    listed $197,500 Active
17. 2022-12-31
    historical
18. 2022-08-07
    listed $297,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,063
• − Property taxes: −$2,962
• − Insurance: −$988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − Depreciation: −$5,745
• Taxable income: $3,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$752
• After-tax cash flow: $5,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, fully furnished home on a corner lot offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for immediate move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both HVAC maintenance — improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-33.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $197,500 ARMLS
• 2022-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-08-07 Listed $297,500 ARMLS