821 La Camelia · Palmview, TX 78572

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 253 Days on market

Built 2014 7,501 sqft lot $130/sqft · 9% below area Est $170k · 9% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 Bed/2 Bath home features a spacious kitchen, dining and living area. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio, ideal for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near main highways, shopping, and restaurants!!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large backyard
• Covered patio

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-751/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Palmview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,267 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,217 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,265
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -8.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Princess Lea	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,265 (+6%)	18mo	$180,000	$142	64
2503 Ala Blanca Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,219 (+2%)	13mo	$205,000	$168	59
1506 Magdalena Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (+3%)	7mo	$180,000	$147	52
900 N Moorefield Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,341 (+13%)	2mo	$124,900	$93	51
1206 Dolores Del Rio Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+6%)	15mo	$179,000	$142	46
301 Green Gate Cir N	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (-6%)	18mo	$169,900	$152	36
218 Rancho Del Rey	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,058 (-11%)	14mo	$195,000	$184	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-31,774
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-43,312
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,851/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $143,944

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1604 Inspiration Rd Unit 16 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	740	$775	$1.05	43d	1	0.96mi
1604 Inspiration Rd Unit 14 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	740	$775	$1.05	19d	1	0.96mi
1600 Inspiration Rd Apt 34 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	868	$780	$0.90	43d	1	0.97mi
2306 Ocaso Rd Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1128	$1,600	$1.42	43d	1	1.02mi
304 S Tecate Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,700	$1.23	43d	1	1.13mi
983 Washington Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	43d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 238 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 236 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 235 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 234 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $155,000 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    This 3 Bed/2 Bath home features a spacious kitchen, dining and living area. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio, ideal for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near main highways, shopping, and restaurants!!

18. 2025-10-08
    listed $160,000 Active 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    This 3 Bed/2 Bath home features a spacious kitchen, dining and living area. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio, ideal for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near main highways, shopping, and restaurants!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,851 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,851 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,851
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$813
• After-tax cash flow: $62/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palmview

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1267
• US rank: #22043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmview, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $155,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $160,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,851 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.