247 N Hickory St · Kermit, TX 79745

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1960 5,662 sqft lot $98/sqft · 19% below area Est $154k · 19% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity. This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a corner lot. Affordable opportunity with great potential and room to make it your own.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#925 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kermit ISD (town): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #602 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kermit El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 596 students, 77% FRL); Kermit J H (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 406 students, 74% FRL); Kermit H S (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 372 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Winkler County population projected at +67% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.37%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,346
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -19.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $107,770
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.17×
• Total profit: $286,115
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79745

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,092/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,011

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $694	-5% $659	+0% $623	+5% $588	+10% $553
Rent	-10% $481	-5% $552	+0% $623	+5% $694	+10% $766
Rate	-1.0pp $686	-0.5pp $655	base $623	+0.5pp $591	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
452 North Avenue B Unit B Kermit, TX	3.0	1.5	1220	$1,800	$1.48	45d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-03-07
    price $125,000 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    Great opportunity. This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a corner lot. Affordable opportunity with great potential and room to make it your own.

19. 2026-01-16
    listed $135,000 Active 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    Great opportunity. This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a corner lot. Affordable opportunity with great potential and room to make it your own.

20. 2025-07-03
    soldstatus
21. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus
22. 2014-03-19
    soldstatus
23. 2014-03-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,092 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,195/yr (+$100/mo · 109.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,092
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,389
• After-tax cash flow: $6,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kermit ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825560
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,332
• Composite: 26.47/100
• National rank: #7215
• State rank: #602 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kermit

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #925
• US rank: #16453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kermit, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,160

Population outlook (Winkler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,019 people
• By 2030: 11,177 · +11.6%
• By 2040: 13,746 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 16,734 · +67.0%
• By 2075: 24,573 · +145.3%
• By 2100: 30,264 · +202.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Winkler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.5) · D 14.7% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.8pp · 2024: -70.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.5 2020: R+65.6 2016: R+52.5 2012: R+53.5 2008: R+51.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.52%
• Current HPI: 233.1436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $125,000 ODMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $135,000 ODMLS
• 2025-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,092 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.