1237 Broken Bow Ln · Bismarck, AR 71929

$80,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1980 0.50 ac lot $75/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, two-bath home in Bismarck, Arkansas, nestled on half an acre in a peaceful, rural setting. Surrounded by Ross Foundation land, this property offers a rare sense of seclusion and natural beauty. The home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Whether you're looking for a perfect starter home or simply craving quiet country living, this inviting space offers a great opportunity to enjoy the outdoors and escape the hustle and bustle. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of tranquility in the heart of the countryside.

Key facts

• Quiet country living
• Thoughtfully updated
• Half an acre

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• THOUGHTFULLY UPDATED
• QUIET COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.4% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bismarck School District (rural): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 238 in AR (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $80k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.43%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,417
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -66.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $61,933
• Equity at exit: $72,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.50×
• Total profit: $167,988
• Equity at exit: $155,422

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71929

• Home prices YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    price $80,000 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, two-bath home in Bismarck, Arkansas, nestled on half an acre in a peaceful, rural setting. Surrounded by Ross Foundation land, this property offers a rare sense of seclusion and natural beauty. The home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Whether you're looking for a perfect starter home or simply craving quiet country living, this inviting space offers a great opportunity to enjoy the outdoors and escape the hustle and bustle. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of tranquility in the heart of the countryside.

17. 2026-03-17
    status Price Change 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, two-bath home in Bismarck, Arkansas, nestled on half an acre in a peaceful, rural setting. Surrounded by Ross Foundation land, this property offers a rare sense of seclusion and natural beauty. The home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Whether you're looking for a perfect starter home or simply craving quiet country living, this inviting space offers a great opportunity to enjoy the outdoors and escape the hustle and bustle. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of tranquility in the heart of the countryside.

18. 2026-01-17
    historical Take Backups 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, two-bath home in Bismarck, Arkansas, nestled on half an acre in a peaceful, rural setting. Surrounded by Ross Foundation land, this property offers a rare sense of seclusion and natural beauty. The home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Whether you're looking for a perfect starter home or simply craving quiet country living, this inviting space offers a great opportunity to enjoy the outdoors and escape the hustle and bustle. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of tranquility in the heart of the countryside.

19. 2026-01-14
    listed $95,000 New Listing 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, two-bath home in Bismarck, Arkansas, nestled on half an acre in a peaceful, rural setting. Surrounded by Ross Foundation land, this property offers a rare sense of seclusion and natural beauty. The home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Whether you're looking for a perfect starter home or simply craving quiet country living, this inviting space offers a great opportunity to enjoy the outdoors and escape the hustle and bustle. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of tranquility in the heart of the countryside.

20. 2026-01-14
    historical

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Welcome to this charming three-bedroom, two-bath home in Bismarck, Arkansas, nestled on half an acre in a peaceful, rural setting. Surrounded by Ross Foundation land, this property offers a rare sense of seclusion and natural beauty. The home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Whether you're looking for a perfect starter home or simply craving quiet country living, this inviting space offers a great opportunity to enjoy the outdoors and escape the hustle and bustle. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of tranquility in the heart of the countryside.

21. 2025-11-13
    price $95,000
22. 2025-10-20
    status Back on Market
23. 2025-10-02
    historical Take Backups
24. 2025-09-22
    price $100,000
25. 2025-08-11
    price $135,000
26. 2025-07-13
    listed $150,000 New Listing
27. 2019-03-27
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,321
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$557
• After-tax cash flow: $2,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck School District
• NCES district ID: 0503240
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $42,486
• Composite: 43.73/100
• National rank: #2948
• State rank: #14 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bismarck

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,673

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.01%
• Current HPI: 305.8998
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+240.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $80,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $95,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $95,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $100,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $135,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-13 Listed $150,000 CARMLS
• 2019-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $43 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.