23 Howard Rd · Titusville, NY 12603

$335,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1940 0.40 ac lot $220/sqft · 28% below area Est $467k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful 3-bedroom, 1 full bath Cape Cod located in the Arlington School District in the Town of LaGrange. As you enter the home, you’ll immediately appreciate the large open kitchen filled with natural light, featuring beautiful beamed ceilings and two pantry closets for ample storage. The first floor offers a generously sized primary bedroom with abundant closet space. Recessed lighting flows seamlessly from the kitchen into the dining room and family room. The family room showcases a stunning rock-faced fireplace as its focal point, while large windows throughout these living spaces provide plenty of natural light. Just off the family room is a flexible space that

Key facts

• Flexible space
• Beamed ceilings
• Pantry closets

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• BEAMED CEILINGS
• PANTRY CLOSETS
• ROCK-FACED FIREPLACE
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage (1 parking space); Carport: none; Additional storage in garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electric service by Central Hudson; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Smoke detectors; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two-level home (total rooms: 8)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Storage; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (washer, dryer); Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer/Dryer hookup in basement; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Overlook Primary School (402 students, 25% FRL); Union Vale Middle School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 907 students, 21% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $335k implies a 2580% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $274,555 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $467,471
• List price: $335,000
• Delta: -28.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
565 Freedom Plains Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,540 (+1%)	14mo	$337,000	$219	77
10 Meier Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (+2%)	1mo	$414,000	$265	70
5 Donnie Pl	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,463 (-4%)	20mo	$379,990	$260	62
107 Noxon Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,738 (+14%)	4mo	$399,000	$230	50
21 Robert Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-13%)	6mo	$330,000	$250	46
62 Hillcrest Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	7mo	$425,000	$316	38
215 Ridgeline Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,652 (+8%)	21mo	$550,000	$333	37
30 Robert Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+11%)	22mo	$450,000	$266	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-78,916
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-108,174
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12603

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$847 /mo · $10,158/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,472

Max offer price $274,555

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-247	+0% $-342	+5% $-437	+10% $-532
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-462	+0% $-342	+5% $-222	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-173	-0.5pp $-257	base $-342	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Glen Ct Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1782	$4,500	$2.53	45d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $335,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $335,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $335,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $335,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $335,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $355,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $355,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $355,000 1728-char remark
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $385,000 Active 1728-char remark
18. 1982-09-24
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,158 · $847/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,158 · $847/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$10,158
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,917
• − Management: −$2,917
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$9,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,331
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Titusville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #585
• US rank: #10597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,304
• Household income: $103,538
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.61%
• Current HPI: 252.7003
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2580.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $335,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $355,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $385,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,158 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.