5445 Pine Lane Dr · Jackson, MS 39201

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1957 0.33 ac lot Est $232k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So Cute! Spacious 3 bed/ 2 bath with den and additional formal living room, formal dining area and eat-in kitchen bar. Updates everywhere. Ceramic tile floors in the kitchen. NO CARPET. Fresh paint throughout, beautiful wood floors, extra closet storage, 2 car garage, fenced backyard with storage building/playhouse. Quiet tree-lined street. Lots of trees in the yard. Great access to everything. Great buy in a great area.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); 6 total parking spaces; Garage faces front with inside entrance; Concrete parking surfaces
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Conventional foundation; Architectural asphalt shingles roof; Built in public records (year built source)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio with stone/tile; Fire pit; Portable building; Fenced yard (privacy wood fence)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Wired for sound; ENERGY STAR qualified vinyl windows; Deadbolt locks; French doors; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-125/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spann Elementary School (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #289 of 375 statewide, top 78%, 395 students, 100% FRL); Chastain Middle School (math 5% / reading 11%, grade F, #165 of 179 statewide, top 93%, 499 students, 100% FRL); Murrah High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #130 of 197 statewide, top 68%, 1,326 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,804 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5430 Pine Lane Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,932 (-2%)	9mo	$198,000	$102	86
5457 Suffolk Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+1%)	10mo	$239,900	$120	74
5207 Reddoch Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,001 (+1%)	1mo	$250,000	$125	69
5438 Pine Lane Dr	0.04mi	3/3.0	2,231 (+13%)	6mo	$197,500	$89	68
1005 Briarwood Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,994 (+1%)	5mo	$239,000	$120	67
5276 Saratoga Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+6%)	4mo	$269,900	$129	59
5235 Hialeah Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (+6%)	2mo	$245,000	$117	57
5247 Suffolk Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,691 (-15%)	0mo	$262,500	$155	53
5246 Saratoga Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,273 (+15%)	4mo	$220,000	$97	52
1030 Adkins Blvd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,178 (+10%)	4mo	$153,000	$70	42
5172 Kaywood Cir	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,255 (+14%)	6mo	$214,900	$95	30
5335 Red Fox Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,265 (+14%)	11mo	$254,900	$113	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $22,244
• Equity at exit: $85,432

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $80,172
• Equity at exit: $131,661

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39201

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,747/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $188,158

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $43	+0% $-10	+5% $-64	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-75	+0% $-10	+5% $54	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $38	base $-10	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5538 Pine Lane Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1627	$1,465	$0.90	45d	1	0.13mi
5544 Wayneland Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,831	$1.02	45d	1	0.16mi
5301 Ridgewood Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,850	$1.25	45d	1	0.43mi
212 Pimlico Pl Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$900	$0.56	15d	1	0.63mi
5125 Old Canton Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	3.0	2025	$2,100	$1.04	25d	1	0.82mi
492 E Beasley Rd Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$1,440	$1.27	15d	8	0.85mi
120 Parkway Dr Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$2,255	$2.10	15d	15	1.14mi
4750 Old Canton Rd Jackson, MS	4.0	3.0	2085	$2,200	$1.06	25d	1	1.17mi
1702 Jamestown Way Unit 1702 Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,495	$1.02	45d	1	1.27mi
701 Cedarhurst Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1419	$1,250	$0.88	25d	1	1.43mi
119 S Canton Club Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,595	$1.10	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $190,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 632-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-09
   listed $190,000 Active
8. 2005-05-24
   soldstatus 424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (424 chars)

   So Cute! Spacious 3 bed/ 2 bath with den and additional formal living room, formal dining area and eat-in kitchen bar. Updates everywhere. Ceramic tile floors in the kitchen. NO CARPET. Fresh paint throughout, beautiful wood floors, extra closet storage, 2 car garage, fenced backyard with storage building/playhouse. Quiet tree-lined street. Lots of trees in the yard. Great access to everything. Great buy in a great area.

9. 2005-05-23
   soldstatus
10. 2005-03-17
    listed $127,900 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    So Cute! Spacious 3 bed/ 2 bath with den and additional formal living room, formal dining area and eat-in kitchen bar. Updates everywhere. Ceramic tile floors in the kitchen. NO CARPET. Fresh paint throughout, beautiful wood floors, extra closet storage, 2 car garage, fenced backyard with storage building/playhouse. Quiet tree-lined street. Lots of trees in the yard. Great access to everything. Great buy in a great area.

11. 2000-05-24
    soldstatus
12. 1997-04-30
    soldstatus
13. 1996-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,747
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$805
• After-tax cash flow: $680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• City population: 140,204
• Population (ZIP): 775

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: German 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+48.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-09 Listed $190,000 MLSU
• 2005-05-24 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-17 Listed $127,900 MLSU
• 2000-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,747 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.