5406 Palamino Ct · Atascocita, TX 77346

$240,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,181 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1980 9,962 sqft lot $110/sqft · 6% below area Est $254k · 6% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home in the desirable Oaks of Atascocita community, offering 3 beds and 2 baths. Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this residence provides privacy and peaceful neighborhood setting. Inside, the open-concept layout seamlessly connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The living room features a stunning vaulted ceiling with exposed beams, adding warmth and character. A versatile loft overlooks the main living space and can easily function as an office, game room, or creative retreat. Step outside to a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or weekend barbecues. Residents enjoy a welcoming community featuring a swimming pool, park, and beautifully maintained common areas. Location perks include proximity to Lake Houston for boating and fishing, several nearby golf courses, and convenient access to local schools including Oaks Elementary, along with quick access to Hwy 59 for an easy commute.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Vaulted ceiling
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILING
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• VERSATILE LOFT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($160/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,990
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -5.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5702 Deer Timbers Trl	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,189 (+0%)	4mo	$289,900	$132	73
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,276 (+4%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	71
19922 Big Timber Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,035 (-7%)	1mo	$249,900	$123	63
5527 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,348 (+8%)	2mo	$279,900	$119	61
5606 Timbers Trail Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,498 (+14%)	1mo	$255,000	$102	60
5514 Fawn Trail Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,863 (-15%)	3mo	$250,000	$134	59
5811 Forest Timbers Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,292 (+5%)	1mo	$264,500	$115	58
20107 Bambiwoods Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,348 (+8%)	3mo	$237,000	$101	53
20022 River Brook Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,904 (-13%)	4mo	$314,995	$165	53
20113 Dawn Mist Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,951 (-10%)	5mo	$249,800	$128	50
20207 Misty Pines Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (-13%)	2mo	$199,900	$105	45
6003 Rivergrove Bend Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,456 (+13%)	5mo	$325,000	$132	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-23,312
• Equity at exit: $58,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,615
• Equity at exit: $61,840

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,464/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $81	+0% $13	+5% $-55	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-80	+0% $13	+5% $107	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $74	base $13	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	44d	1	0.29mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	44d	1	0.29mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	0d	1	0.60mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	44d	1	0.60mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.89mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,806	$1.19	0d	1	0.94mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	6d	1	1.02mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	44d	1	1.06mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	44d	1	1.07mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	0d	14	1.09mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	6d	1	1.14mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	23d	1	1.14mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	1.25mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	23d	1	1.29mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	23d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $240,000 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home in the desirable Oaks of Atascocita community, offering 3 beds and 2 baths. Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this residence provides privacy and peaceful neighborhood setting. Inside, the open-concept layout seamlessly connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The living room features a stunning vaulted ceiling with exposed beams, adding warmth and character. A versatile loft overlooks the main living space and can easily function as an office, game room, or creative retreat. Step outside to a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or weekend barbecues. Residents enjoy a welcoming community featuring a swimming pool, park, and beautifully maintained common areas. Location perks include proximity to Lake Houston for boating and fishing, several nearby golf courses, and convenient access to local schools including Oaks Elementary, along with quick access to Hwy 59 for an easy commute.

17. 2026-03-03
    listed $250,000 Active 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home in the desirable Oaks of Atascocita community, offering 3 beds and 2 baths. Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this residence provides privacy and peaceful neighborhood setting. Inside, the open-concept layout seamlessly connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The living room features a stunning vaulted ceiling with exposed beams, adding warmth and character. A versatile loft overlooks the main living space and can easily function as an office, game room, or creative retreat. Step outside to a spacious backyard ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or weekend barbecues. Residents enjoy a welcoming community featuring a swimming pool, park, and beautifully maintained common areas. Location perks include proximity to Lake Houston for boating and fishing, several nearby golf courses, and convenient access to local schools including Oaks Elementary, along with quick access to Hwy 59 for an easy commute.

18. 2026-02-17
    historical
19. 2026-02-09
    price $249,500
20. 2025-12-23
    price $265,000
21. 2025-11-12
    listed $275,000 Active
22. 2012-02-23
    soldstatus
23. 2012-01-03
    historical
24. 2011-12-09
    listed $74,900
25. 2011-09-16
    soldstatus
26. 2009-10-14
    historical
27. 2009-07-22
    listed $92,000
28. 2007-08-06
    soldstatus
29. 1988-12-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,464 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,464 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$5,464
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$898
• After-tax cash flow: $1,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+160.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $249,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2012-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-01-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-12-09 Listed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2011-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-07-22 Listed $92,000 HARMLS
• 2007-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,464 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.