303 Bogue Watch Dr · Broad Creek, NC 28570

$799,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,097 sqft · Other public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2017 9,322 sqft lot $161/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home in the highly sought-after sound-front community of Bogue Watch! This beautifully crafted 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath custom home offers a perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and coastal charm. Designed with versatility in mind, the home features two owner's suites--one conveniently located on the main level and another upstairs--ideal for multi-generational living or hosting guests. The open-concept main living area showcases coffered ceilings, custom built-ins, and a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen spaces. The kitchen is a standout, featuring custom butcher block countertops, a built-in coffee bar, and plenty of room for gathering and entertai

Key facts

• Two owner's suites
• Built in coffee bar
• Private marina

Tags

• TWO OWNER'S SUITES
• BUILT IN COFFEE BAR
• LARGE SCREENED IN PORCH
• REAR FACING GARAGE
• PRIVATE MARINA
• BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Bogue Watch subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee billed (annually); Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, playground, marina, boat dock; gated community with grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage faces rear; Concrete parking surfaces; Total of 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story home; Slab foundation; Fiber cement and frame construction; Located in a gated community (Bogue Watch)
• Construction: Built with fiber cement and frame; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered and screened porch options; Front porch; Rear porch; Shingle roof; Property has a view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; At least one accessible full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on main level; Walk-in closets; High ceilings; Built-in bookcases; Kitchen island; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Built-in features; Dry bar
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($83k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $799k).
• Recommended offer: $751k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 22.6% in Broad Creek — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#340 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bogue Sound Elementary (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B, #168 of 1,410 statewide, top 12%, 467 students, 99% FRL); Broad Creek Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #28 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 710 students, 100% FRL); Croatan High (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A, #73 of 535 statewide, top 13%, 974 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $14,897/mo this rent would consume 255% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($751k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $751,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.02%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $309,880
• Equity at exit: $119,133

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $835,084
• Equity at exit: $69,083

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,205/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,128
• Net cashflow: $6,901

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,162

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,353	-5% $7,127	+0% $6,901	+5% $6,675	+10% $6,449
Rent	-10% $5,724	-5% $6,313	+0% $6,901	+5% $7,489	+10% $8,078
Rate	-1.0pp $7,303	-0.5pp $7,104	base $6,901	+0.5pp $6,694	+1.0pp $6,483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $161 · $1,932/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $799,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $799,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $799,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $799,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $799,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $799,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $799,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $799,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $799,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $799,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $799,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $799,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,205 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,552 · $546/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,347/yr (+$362/mo · 197.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 42% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $178,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$2,205
• − Insurance: −$3,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,301
• − Management: −$14,301
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable income: $74,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17,767
• After-tax cash flow: $65,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Broad Creek

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #340
• US rank: #13718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $799,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+32.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,205 · +24.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.