3110 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr · Baytown, TX 77523

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 226 Days on market

Built 1997 5,815 sqft lot $139/sqft · 13% above area Est $149k · 13% over $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Waterfront Manufactured Home with Golf Cart Garage & Breathtaking Views Embrace the ultimate coastal lifestyle in this 3-bed, 2-bath home in Bay Oaks Harbor. Built in 1997, it features an open-concept living area and a versatile 1-car garage perfect for a golf cart and storage. Soak in stunning views and unforgettable sunsets from your backyard, where you can fish from your own property. Launch your boat with ease at the nearby Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp for direct access to Trinity Bay. You're also conveniently close to schools and a 9-hole golf course. Move-in ready. Don't miss your chance to own this slice of paradise. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Golf cart garage
• 9-hole golf course

Tags

• WATERFRONT
• GOLF CART GARAGE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• DIRECT ACCESS TO TRINITY BAY
• 9-HOLE GOLF COURSE
• RECENT UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $169k implies a 338% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.38%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: 13.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3110 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$169,000	$139	100
122 Egret Canal S	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	2mo	$149,000	$141	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $12,941
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $65,821
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $687/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Pending 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Pending 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,000 Pending 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $169,000 Pending 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-02-18
   price $169,000 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Waterfront Manufactured Home with Golf Cart Garage & Breathtaking Views Embrace the ultimate coastal lifestyle in this 3-bed, 2-bath home in Bay Oaks Harbor. Built in 1997, it features an open-concept living area and a versatile 1-car garage perfect for a golf cart and storage. Soak in stunning views and unforgettable sunsets from your backyard, where you can fish from your own property. Launch your boat with ease at the nearby Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp for direct access to Trinity Bay. You're also conveniently close to schools and a 9-hole golf course. Move-in ready. Don't miss your chance to own this slice of paradise. Schedule your private showing today!

8. 2025-10-22
   listed $170,000 Active 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Waterfront Manufactured Home with Golf Cart Garage & Breathtaking Views Embrace the ultimate coastal lifestyle in this 3-bed, 2-bath home in Bay Oaks Harbor. Built in 1997, it features an open-concept living area and a versatile 1-car garage perfect for a golf cart and storage. Soak in stunning views and unforgettable sunsets from your backyard, where you can fish from your own property. Launch your boat with ease at the nearby Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp for direct access to Trinity Bay. You're also conveniently close to schools and a 9-hole golf course. Move-in ready. Don't miss your chance to own this slice of paradise. Schedule your private showing today!

9. 2025-04-18
   soldstatus Sold 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Waterfront manufactured home 3-2-1 golf cart garage/storage. Built in 1997, offers stunning views and unforgettable sunsets. Fish from your own backyard or launch your boat nearby for access to Trinity Bay. Enjoy a peaceful coastal lifestyle in the Bay Oaks Harbor community. Open concept living, dining and kitchen area. AC & HEAT replaced 2024, Roof 50 yr replaced in 2019 & water heater replaced in 2013. Convenient to schools, shopping and Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp nearby. Also, a 9-hole golf course minutes away. Don't let this little piece of paradise slip away. Call for your appointment today.

10. 2025-04-01
    status Pending 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    Waterfront manufactured home 3-2-1 golf cart garage/storage. Built in 1997, offers stunning views and unforgettable sunsets. Fish from your own backyard or launch your boat nearby for access to Trinity Bay. Enjoy a peaceful coastal lifestyle in the Bay Oaks Harbor community. Open concept living, dining and kitchen area. AC & HEAT replaced 2024, Roof 50 yr replaced in 2019 & water heater replaced in 2013. Convenient to schools, shopping and Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp nearby. Also, a 9-hole golf course minutes away. Don't let this little piece of paradise slip away. Call for your appointment today.

11. 2025-03-30
    status Active 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    Waterfront manufactured home 3-2-1 golf cart garage/storage. Built in 1997, offers stunning views and unforgettable sunsets. Fish from your own backyard or launch your boat nearby for access to Trinity Bay. Enjoy a peaceful coastal lifestyle in the Bay Oaks Harbor community. Open concept living, dining and kitchen area. AC & HEAT replaced 2024, Roof 50 yr replaced in 2019 & water heater replaced in 2013. Convenient to schools, shopping and Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp nearby. Also, a 9-hole golf course minutes away. Don't let this little piece of paradise slip away. Call for your appointment today.

12. 2025-03-23
    status Pending 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    Waterfront manufactured home 3-2-1 golf cart garage/storage. Built in 1997, offers stunning views and unforgettable sunsets. Fish from your own backyard or launch your boat nearby for access to Trinity Bay. Enjoy a peaceful coastal lifestyle in the Bay Oaks Harbor community. Open concept living, dining and kitchen area. AC & HEAT replaced 2024, Roof 50 yr replaced in 2019 & water heater replaced in 2013. Convenient to schools, shopping and Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp nearby. Also, a 9-hole golf course minutes away. Don't let this little piece of paradise slip away. Call for your appointment today.

13. 2025-03-15
    status Option Pending 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    Waterfront manufactured home 3-2-1 golf cart garage/storage. Built in 1997, offers stunning views and unforgettable sunsets. Fish from your own backyard or launch your boat nearby for access to Trinity Bay. Enjoy a peaceful coastal lifestyle in the Bay Oaks Harbor community. Open concept living, dining and kitchen area. AC & HEAT replaced 2024, Roof 50 yr replaced in 2019 & water heater replaced in 2013. Convenient to schools, shopping and Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp nearby. Also, a 9-hole golf course minutes away. Don't let this little piece of paradise slip away. Call for your appointment today.

14. 2025-03-14
    historical 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    Waterfront manufactured home 3-2-1 golf cart garage/storage. Built in 1997, offers stunning views and unforgettable sunsets. Fish from your own backyard or launch your boat nearby for access to Trinity Bay. Enjoy a peaceful coastal lifestyle in the Bay Oaks Harbor community. Open concept living, dining and kitchen area. AC & HEAT replaced 2024, Roof 50 yr replaced in 2019 & water heater replaced in 2013. Convenient to schools, shopping and Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp nearby. Also, a 9-hole golf course minutes away. Don't let this little piece of paradise slip away. Call for your appointment today.

15. 2025-03-11
    listed $179,900 Active 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    Waterfront manufactured home 3-2-1 golf cart garage/storage. Built in 1997, offers stunning views and unforgettable sunsets. Fish from your own backyard or launch your boat nearby for access to Trinity Bay. Enjoy a peaceful coastal lifestyle in the Bay Oaks Harbor community. Open concept living, dining and kitchen area. AC & HEAT replaced 2024, Roof 50 yr replaced in 2019 & water heater replaced in 2013. Convenient to schools, shopping and Thompson Bait Camp & Boat Ramp nearby. Also, a 9-hole golf course minutes away. Don't let this little piece of paradise slip away. Call for your appointment today.

16. 2011-05-10
    historical
17. 2005-10-26
    listed $79,500
18. 1997-11-18
    soldstatus
19. 1997-11-18
    soldstatus $38,570
20. 1997-11-01
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $687 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,406/yr (+$200/mo · 350.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$687
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $4,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $6,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+924.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2011-05-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-10-26 Listed $79,500 HARMLS
• 1997-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $38,570 Public Records
• 1997-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2017): $687 · -46.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.