300 Jr Bailey Ln · Dover, AR 72837

$68,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1995 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-wide manufactured home on a wooded lot just outside Dover. Features an entry ramp, one outbuilding, and an in-ground storm shelter. Back yard is partially cleared with a fenced area, gravel driveway, and surrounding hardwood/pine timber. Propane tanks on site. Located off Hwy 7, a few miles north of downtown Dover.

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Fenced area
• Entry ramp

Tags

• ENTRY RAMP
• OUTBUILDING
• IN-GROUND STORM SHELTER
• FENCED AREA
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• HARDWOOD TIMBER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 10-acre lot (includes ~9.5 acres wooded, ~0.5 acre pasture)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel/unpaved driveway parking
• Security: Storm shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Public water; Septic available (septic tank)
• Home design: Single-story; 25+ years old; Metal roof
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Unpaved driveway; Outbuilding; Storm shelter; Back yard fencing; Outside city limits; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range hood
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Programmable thermostat; Window treatments (blinds and drapes)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.8% in Dover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#59 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dover School District (rural): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #30 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Pope County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pope County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.75%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $17,046
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $51,029
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72837

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $68,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 323-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $68,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $4,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $4,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover School District
• NCES district ID: 0505430
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,423
• Composite: 39.05/100
• National rank: #4061
• State rank: #30 of 238 in AR

Livability — Dover

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #8001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,498

Population outlook (Pope County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,303 people
• By 2030: 67,635 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 70,046 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 72,107 · +8.8%
• By 2075: 78,042 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 82,343 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pope

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.7% · R 74.9% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+50.4 2016: R+50.5 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+43.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.85%
• Current HPI: 238.3337
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $68,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $22 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.