Seagrove Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$299,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · Townhouse · 391 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Flex space
• Second bedroom suite
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SECOND BEDROOM SUITE
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed for $299,990

Exterior

• Home design: Seagrove plan; New construction plan
• Construction: Built as part of Seagrove plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,448

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (Seagrove)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,520/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,048 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-38,141
• Equity at exit: $71,720

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-28,626
• Equity at exit: $74,722

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,817

Max offer price $266,126

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-130	+0% $-234	+5% $-338	+10% $-441
Rent	-10% $-433	-5% $-334	+0% $-234	+5% $-134	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-158	base $-234	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6168 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	15d	1	0.34mi
6189 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	24d	1	0.37mi
6205 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	24d	1	0.39mi
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$5,795	$3.44	24d	1	0.64mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	24d	1	0.73mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	24d	1	0.83mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	22d	1	0.83mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	24d	1	0.89mi
6039 Ellerston WAY #2017 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	24d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4217 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	24d	1	0.89mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4316 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,495	$4.76	24d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4223 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,395	$2.08	24d	1	0.89mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir #4416 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	24d	1	0.89mi
5835 Double Eagle CIR #4714 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	24d	1	0.89mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir #4726 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,095	$1.82	15d	1	0.89mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	24d	1	0.89mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	24d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	24d	1	0.89mi
6036 Ellerston WAY #1311 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$4,490	$2.58	24d	1	0.89mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	24d	1	0.89mi
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	24d	1	0.96mi
5705 Mayflower Way #1407 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	24d	1	0.96mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	24d	2	1.01mi
5697 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,495	$1.62	24d	1	1.02mi
5690 Mayflower Way #601 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$5,500	$3.03	24d	1	1.04mi
5690 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$3,295	$1.82	24d	1	1.05mi
6023 Ellerston Way #1823 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,995	$1.77	24d	1	1.05mi
5909 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$10,995	$5.94	24d	1	1.10mi
6058 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1210	$2,995	$2.47	24d	2	1.12mi
6058 National Blvd #335 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	15d	1	1.12mi
6058 National Blvd #343 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	24d	1	1.12mi
6046 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$4,395	$3.81	24d	2	1.16mi
6034 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1137	$4,046	$3.56	15d	3	1.22mi
5428 Double Eagle Cir #2517 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,695	$1.99	24d	1	1.24mi
5410 Double Eagle Cir #2222 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	24d	1	1.25mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir #2915 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$6,295	$4.61	22d	1	1.26mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,295	$2.41	24d	1	1.27mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4742 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	24d	1	1.28mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4631 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$5,695	$4.38	24d	1	1.28mi
5466 Double Eagle Cir #3425 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,995	$4.42	24d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,990 Active 383 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 382 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,990 Active 375 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 374 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 373 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 372 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$3,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,420
• − Management: −$2,420
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$7,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $-901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B