Hawthorne II Plan · DeSoto, TX 75115

$495,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,752 sqft · SingleFamily · 773 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Hawthorne II floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining, large family room, study, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a bedroom suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Upstairs game room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $495,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $552,686.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $496k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $489k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $428k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $428k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in DeSoto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#589 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Duncanville ISD (suburban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #711 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 475 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,279/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 1867% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 773 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $427,945 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 773 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $552,686
• List price: $495,990
• Delta: -10.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
938 Vista Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,783 (+1%)	4mo	$475,000	$171	88
2100 Homestead Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,799 (+2%)	4mo	$499,000	$178	86
933 Homestead Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,773 (+1%)	5mo	$510,000	$184	84
936 Homestead Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,828 (+3%)	2mo	$478,000	$169	81
2041 Picnic Crk	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,521 (-8%)	7mo	$485,000	$192	65
936 Waddle Ln	0.26mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,521 (-8%)	5mo	$499,381	$198	64
2018 Mammoth Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,521 (-8%)	3mo	$495,541	$197	59
1817 Masters Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,528 (-8%)	3mo	$465,000	$184	55
849 Yosemite Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,591 (-6%)	15mo	$499,000	$193	54
837 Yosemite Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,591 (-6%)	15mo	$499,000	$193	54
840 Alamo Ct	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,459 (-11%)	14mo	$497,000	$202	48
827 Astaire Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,547 (-7%)	10mo	$339,900	$133	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-129,978
• Equity at exit: $82,407

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-197,368
• Equity at exit: $47,786

Cash invested: $154,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75115

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,898
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$691 /mo · $8,290/yr
• Insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$899
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,835

Max offer price $489,202

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-248	+0% $-439	+5% $-630	+10% $-821
Rent	-10% $-777	-5% $-608	+0% $-439	+5% $-270	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-160	-0.5pp $-298	base $-439	+0.5pp $-582	+1.0pp $-728

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,171
• Closing costs: $16,581
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 Saint George Pl Desoto, TX	4.0	2.5	2600	$3,500	$1.35	0d	1	1.01mi
1424 Cobblestone Dr Desoto, TX	5.0	3.0	2667	$8,950	$3.36	24d	1	1.43mi
407 Hillcroft Cir Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2002	$2,275	$1.14	9d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $495,990 Active 773 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,990 Active 770 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,990 Active 769 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,990 Active 768 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,990 Active 767 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,990 Active 765 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,990 Active 764 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,990 Active 761 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,990 Active 760 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $495,990 Active 759 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $495,990 Active 756 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $495,990 Active 755 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,990 Active 754 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,990 Active 753 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,990 Active 752 DOM
16. 2024-05-10
    listed $495,990 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The Classic Series Hawthorne II floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining, large family room, study, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a bedroom suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

17. 2024-04-11
    listed $495,990 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    The Classic Series Hawthorne II floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining, large family room, study, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a bedroom suite with walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,959
• − Property taxes: −$8,290
• − Insurance: −$2,763
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,108
• − Management: −$4,108
• − Depreciation: −$16,078
• Taxable loss: −$14,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Hawthorne II home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal, making it a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior stone siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior stone siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duncanville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,979
• Composite: 21.71/100
• National rank: #8270
• State rank: #711 of 826 in TX

Livability — DeSoto

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #11236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: DeSoto, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 56,211
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 56,211
• Household income: $82,782
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1867.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.49%
• Current HPI: 272.1565
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.60%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-10 Listed $495,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-11 Listed $495,990 Zillow