2097 Coles Point Rd · Tall Timbers, MD 22469

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1951 3.61 ac lot $103/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on over 3.5 acres across two parcels, this spacious 2 story home offers the perfect blend of privacy, potential, and location. Featuring over 1,500 square feet, this 3 bedroom, 1 bath property includes a convenient first floor primary bedroom and a full bath, ideal for flexible living arrangements. The front deck overlooks the expansive, flat front yard, perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or entertaining outdoors. Step inside to find an enclosed front porch filled with natural light from abundant windows, creating a warm and inviting space to relax year round. A 14x10 shed provides additional storage for tools, hobbies, or outdoor equipment. Located just minutes from Coles Point Marina and Campground, you’ll enjoy easy access to stunning views of the Potomac River, along with boating, fishing, kayaking, camping, and a swimming pool. Nearby dining options include The Deadrise Grill, Coles Point Tavern, Shuck It, and more, offering fresh local flavor and seafood, just a short drive away. You’ll also be close to Hague Winery for relaxing afternoons and tastings. This home is ready for your personal touch and a little TLC, making it a fantastic opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their dream home in a serene setting. If you’re seeking space, location, and opportunity, this property is full of promise. Come see the potential for yourself! Recent updates include: New well replacement (2025), new refrigerator and stove (2025), new windows (2021), roof replacement (2016), hot water heater (2018), security monitoring system (2020).

Key facts

• 14x10 shed
• Over 3.5 acres
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• OVER 3.5 ACRES
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• 14X10 SHED
• NEARBY DINING OPTIONS
• CLOSE TO HAGUE WINERY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($808/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.6% in Tall Timbers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#466 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,972 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,740
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -50.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $91,352
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $265,496
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22469

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    listed $160,000 Active 1609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1609 chars)

    Nestled on over 3.5 acres across two parcels, this spacious 2 story home offers the perfect blend of privacy, potential, and location. Featuring over 1,500 square feet, this 3 bedroom, 1 bath property includes a convenient first floor primary bedroom and a full bath, ideal for flexible living arrangements. The front deck overlooks the expansive, flat front yard, perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or entertaining outdoors. Step inside to find an enclosed front porch filled with natural light from abundant windows, creating a warm and inviting space to relax year round. A 14x10 shed provides additional storage for tools, hobbies, or outdoor equipment. Located just minutes from Coles Point Marina and Campground, you’ll enjoy easy access to stunning views of the Potomac River, along with boating, fishing, kayaking, camping, and a swimming pool. Nearby dining options include The Deadrise Grill, Coles Point Tavern, Shuck It, and more, offering fresh local flavor and seafood, just a short drive away. You’ll also be close to Hague Winery for relaxing afternoons and tastings. This home is ready for your personal touch and a little TLC, making it a fantastic opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their dream home in a serene setting. If you’re seeking space, location, and opportunity, this property is full of promise. Come see the potential for yourself! Recent updates include: New well replacement (2025), new refrigerator and stove (2025), new windows (2021), roof replacement (2016), hot water heater (2018), security monitoring system (2020).

17. 2026-03-10
    historical
18. 2026-01-28
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-01-28
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-01-17
    price $170,000
21. 2026-01-16
    price $170,000
22. 2025-12-02
    price $185,000
23. 2025-12-02
    price $185,000
24. 2025-12-01
    listed $200,000 Active
25. 2025-10-29
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$597/yr (+$50/mo · 108.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$472
• After-tax cash flow: $1,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tall Timbers

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #26296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,046
• Population (ZIP): 1,986

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 56.12%
• Current HPI: 300.9225
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $160,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-28 Contingent — NNAR
• 2026-01-28 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $170,000 NNAR
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $185,000 NNAR
• 2025-12-01 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $200,000 NNAR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $550 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.