LANTANA Plan · Florence, AZ 85132

$319,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,284 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5 Beds | 3 Baths | 2-Bay | 2,284 Sq. Ft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 132 days

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $330,751.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence K-8 (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #742 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 771 students, 56% FRL); Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 860 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,339 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,751
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -3.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
473 W Van Haren St	0.28mi	5/3.0	2,284 (0%)	0mo	$309,000	$135	87
544 W Van Haren St	0.28mi	5/3.0	2,284 (0%)	1mo	$305,000	$134	86
600 W Van Haren St	0.26mi	5/3.0	2,284 (0%)	2mo	$304,990	$134	86
530 W Van Haren St	0.28mi	5/3.0	2,396 (+5%)	1mo	$299,990	$125	78
614 W Bunker Hill St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,051 (-10%)	0mo	$320,000	$156	70
602 W Bunker Hill St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,051 (-10%)	1mo	$305,495	$149	68
636 W Freedom St	0.13mi	5/2.0	1,989 (-13%)	3mo	$319,990	$161	66
624 W Freedom St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,051 (-10%)	3mo	$359,990	$176	65
614 W Freedom St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,051 (-10%)	4mo	$339,990	$166	64
1093 W Feliz St	0.67mi	5/3.5	2,334 (+2%)	1mo	$373,900	$160	62
612 W Van Haren St	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,943 (-15%)	1mo	$265,000	$136	57
708 S Maricopa Rd	0.71mi	5/3.5	2,334 (+2%)	5mo	$370,000	$159	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-74,060
• Equity at exit: $49,316

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-102,514
• Equity at exit: $28,597

Cash invested: $92,610 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,900 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 860
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,961/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,893

Max offer price $294,175

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-138	+0% $-253	+5% $-367	+10% $-481
Rent	-10% $-456	-5% $-354	+0% $-253	+5% $-151	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-169	base $-253	+0.5pp $-338	+1.0pp $-426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,688
• Closing costs: $9,923
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
258 S Oak St Florence, AZ	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,100	$0.90	10d	1	0.76mi
258 S Oak St Florence, AZ	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,100	$0.90	14d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $319,990 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $319,990 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $319,990 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $319,990 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $319,990 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $319,990 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $319,990 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $319,990 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $319,990 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $319,990 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $319,990 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 109 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $319,990 Active 108 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 107 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $319,990 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $319,990 Active 104 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $319,990 Active 103 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $319,990 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $319,990 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $319,990 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 97 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 96 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 95 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $319,990 Active 94 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $319,990 Active 93 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $319,990 Active 92 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $319,990 Active 91 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 90 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 88 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $319,990 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 85 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 82 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $319,990 Active 81 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $319,990 Active 80 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 79 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 76 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $319,990 Active 73 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,990 Active 72 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,990 Active 71 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 68 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 67 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,527
• − Property taxes: −$4,961
• − Insurance: −$1,654
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − Depreciation: −$9,622
• Taxable loss: −$8,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 15/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Florence K-8 F AZ #742/1,109 Nat'l #33,283/41,679 High Florence High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $319,990 Zillow