2921 Old Caseyville Rd · Swansea, IL 62226

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1957 10,227 sqft lot Est $126k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 2921 Old Caseyville Rd. in Swansea! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 978 square feet of comfortable living space with hardwood floors and a warm, inviting feel throughout. Plus don't forget the full unfinished basement! Nestled on a lot that backs to a peaceful tree line, you’ll enjoy added privacy and a relaxing backyard setting. The family room provides plenty of room to gather, while the well-maintained condition of the home makes it easy to move right in and add your personal touch over time. Conveniently located in a highly desirable school district, this home is a wonderful opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for a cozy pla

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Newer roof
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• BACKS TO A PEACEFUL TREE LINE
• RELAXING BACKYARD SETTING
• WELL MAINTAINED CONDITION
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER AC

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage on record; Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Private ownership; Lot includes other features; Lot recorded in public records

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level (each approximately 11 x 11)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room (22 x 11); Dining room (13 x 10); Total of 6 rooms; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.9% in Swansea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#105 in IL, #1,705 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-East (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #241 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 2,568 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $129k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,162
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
640 Devonshire Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-2%)	0mo	$80,000	$83	54
652 Devonshire Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0	988 (+1%)	12mo	$125,000	$127	51
51 Lillian Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (-5%)	10mo	$137,900	$149	39
1009 Royal Heights Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (-8%)	5mo	$34,900	$39	39
909 Royal Heights Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (-8%)	6mo	$80,000	$89	38
1519 W Belle St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,080 (+10%)	24mo	$139,500	$129	34
4 Dale Allen Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-12%)	9mo	$48,000	$56	33
1900 N 15th St	0.57mi	2/1.0	832 (-15%)	17mo	$129,900	$156	30
13 Hilda Ann Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	836 (-14%)	16mo	$139,900	$167	25
21 Mariknoll Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+14%)	22mo	$189,900	$170	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,922
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $20,113
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62226

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,012/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Ben Louis Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,145	$1.27	23d	1	0.36mi
1000 Royal Heights Rd Belleville, IL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,345	$1.22	23d	1	0.65mi
654 N 39th St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,400	$1.42	17d	1	0.86mi
213 Columbus Dr Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,650	$1.59	23d	1	0.96mi
1856 Jewel Sisson Dr Belleville, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$1,604	$1.53	1d	19	1.37mi
5784 Brett Michael Ln Belleville, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,195	$1.49	7d	7	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $129,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $129,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-17
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2026-05-15
    listed $129,000 Active
13. 2010-11-17
    soldstatus $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,012 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,970 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$958/yr (+$80/mo · 94.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,012
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $353
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Swansea

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #1705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Swansea, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 28,543
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,255
• Household income: $70,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.57%
• Current HPI: 133.9028
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+68.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $129,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,012 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.