1321 Highway 44 · Monticello, MS 39641

$120,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1995 Fair condition 2.40 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property features three bedrooms and three full bathrooms with two living spaces, a dedicated office, laundry room, kitchen, and dining area. Situated on approximately 2.4 acres with an in-ground pool.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Two living spaces
• Laundry room

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• TWO LIVING SPACES
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.20%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $33,802
• Equity at exit: $60,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $94,538
• Equity at exit: $99,698

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39641

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $920

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-05-07
   price $120,000 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   Property features three bedrooms and three full bathrooms with two living spaces, a dedicated office, laundry room, kitchen, and dining area. Situated on approximately 2.4 acres with an in-ground pool.

9. 2026-03-25
   price $129,999 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   Property features three bedrooms and three full bathrooms with two living spaces, a dedicated office, laundry room, kitchen, and dining area. Situated on approximately 2.4 acres with an in-ground pool.

10. 2026-03-04
    price $139,900 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Property features three bedrooms and three full bathrooms with two living spaces, a dedicated office, laundry room, kitchen, and dining area. Situated on approximately 2.4 acres with an in-ground pool.

11. 2026-02-05
    listed $149,500 Active 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Property features three bedrooms and three full bathrooms with two living spaces, a dedicated office, laundry room, kitchen, and dining area. Situated on approximately 2.4 acres with an in-ground pool.

12. 2024-04-22
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$111
• After-tax cash flow: $2,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which would increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn and dated
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — Worn and dated
• Minor Landscaping — Fenced yard, shed

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — Improves comfort and appearance
• Both Replace dated kitchen cabinets and bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn and dated	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · Worn and dated	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Fenced yard, shed	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Replace dated kitchen cabinets and bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,725
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8812
• State rank: #85 of 130 in MS

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #6306

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,821

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,069 people
• By 2030: 11,724 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 10,955 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 10,085 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 5,614 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.6) · D 31.4% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -36.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.6 2020: R+30.6 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Current HPI: 142.2867
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $120,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $129,999 MLSU
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $139,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-05 Listed $149,500 MLSU
• 2024-04-22 Listed $160,000 HAAR

Property tax history

-19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.