1768 38th Pl · Salem, OR 97305

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1970 $170/sqft · 268% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms 1 bathroom, plus a versatile bonus room, with convenient access to shopping, schools, and parks. Over the last four years, the home has been thoughtfully updated with laminate flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new siding, offering both comfort and modern appeal. The kitchen includes a refrigerator and microwave and dishwasher. Home includes washer and dryer set. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• New siding
• Bonus room

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW SIDING
• KITCHEN INCLUDES REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.41%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $32,915
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 173.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $7,377
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $34,733
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4154 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,375	$1.71	13d	6	0.25mi
2489 Coral Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	817	$1,301	$1.59	13d	11	0.47mi
3695 D St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,650	$1.59	43d	3	0.48mi
1677 Savage Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	23d	1	0.59mi
1601 Savage Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	21d	2	0.60mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 43 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	604	$1,150	$1.90	23d	1	0.61mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	771	$1,350	$1.75	13d	11	0.61mi
793 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 803 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	750	$1,225	$1.63	13d	1	0.78mi
793 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 837 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	750	$1,125	$1.50	13d	1	0.78mi
2425 Lansing Ave NE Unit A Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$1,200	$2.40	21d	1	0.79mi
1723 Park Ave NE Unit 1727C Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	643	$1,095	$1.70	43d	1	0.79mi
721-759 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 733 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	712	$995	$1.40	43d	1	0.82mi
721-759 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 759 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	610	$895	$1.47	23d	1	0.82mi
3213 Center St NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$1,095	$2.19	43d	1	0.89mi
909 Park Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,588	$1.69	13d	28	0.98mi
4704 Center St NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	658	$1,472	$2.24	13d	15	1.16mi
739 23rd St NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	868	$1,169	$1.35	21d	1	1.21mi
1310 18th St NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	450	$1,500	$3.33	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $89,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-02-06
   price $89,900 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Welcome to this charming manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms 1 bathroom, plus a versatile bonus room, with convenient access to shopping, schools, and parks. Over the last four years, the home has been thoughtfully updated with laminate flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new siding, offering both comfort and modern appeal. The kitchen includes a refrigerator and microwave and dishwasher. Home includes washer and dryer set. Schedule a showing today!

7. 2026-02-05
   price $89,900 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Welcome to this charming manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, plus a versatile bonus room, with convenient access to shopping, schools, and parks. Over the last four years, the home has been thoughtfully updated with laminate flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new siding, offering both comfort and modern appeal. The kitchen includes a refrigerator and microwave, and the washer and dryer are also included. The functional layout is filled with natural light. Schedule a showing today!

8. 2026-01-05
   listed $95,000 Active 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Welcome to this charming manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, plus a versatile bonus room, with convenient access to shopping, schools, and parks. Over the last four years, the home has been thoughtfully updated with laminate flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new siding, offering both comfort and modern appeal. The kitchen includes a refrigerator and microwave, and the washer and dryer are also included. The functional layout is filled with natural light. Schedule a showing today!

9. 2026-01-05
   listed $95,000 Active 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Welcome to this charming manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, plus a versatile bonus room, with convenient access to shopping, schools, and parks. Over the last four years, the home has been thoughtfully updated with laminate flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new siding, offering both comfort and modern appeal. The kitchen includes a refrigerator and microwave, and the washer and dryer are also included. The functional layout is filled with natural light. Schedule a showing today!

10. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus $65,000 Sold
11. 2022-04-12
    historical Active under Contract
12. 2022-04-01
    listed $69,900 Active
13. 2022-02-19
    historical
14. 2021-11-30
    price $75,000
15. 2021-11-30
    price $69,000
16. 2021-11-18
    listed $75,000 Active
17. 2016-08-04
    historical
18. 2016-07-28
    listed $15,500 Active
19. 1992-01-01
    soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $3,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• City population: 193,601
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+1283.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $89,900 WVMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $89,900 RMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $95,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $95,000 WVMLS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) $65,000 WVMLS
• 2022-04-12 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2022-04-01 Listed $69,900 WVMLS
• 2022-02-19 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2021-11-30 Price Changed $75,000 WVMLS
• 2021-11-30 Price Changed $69,000 WVMLS
• 2021-11-18 Listed $75,000 WVMLS
• 2016-08-04 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2016-07-28 Listed $15,500 WVMLS
• 1992-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records