528 Tropical Isles Cir · Indian River Estates, FL 34982

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · Manufactured · 235 Days on market

Built 1992 Est $141k · 43% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home recently freshened up with flooring, paint, newer kitchen, large living area, eat in kitchen, Florida room, screened porch, dual sinks in master bath, large carport, shed and backs to a lake. Ready to move in to, don't miss it. All information is approximate and buyer is to verify all.

Key facts

• Newer kitchen
• Florida room
• Backs to a lake

Tags

• NEWER KITCHEN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• SCREENED PORCH
• BACKS TO A LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,326; Total building area reported as 1,526
• Financial info: Rented lot
• HOA & community: Has association; Association amenities include: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, billiard room, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court, bocce ball, community room, manager on site; Association covers grounds maintenance, trash, and common area maintenance; Senior community; Pets allowed (restrictions and possible limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Entry level living area; North-facing
• Construction: Modular construction; Composition/shingle roof; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Patio; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.5% vs local median 5.3% in Indian River Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#653 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 336 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,232/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1086% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.95%
• DSCR: 3.89
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,556
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
243 Sea Conch	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,411 (+6%)	6mo	$150,000	$106	77
5683 Hemingway Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-14%)	1mo	$76,800	$67	71
331 Seahorse Ter	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,484 (+12%)	24mo	$220,900	$149	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $74,574
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.43×
• Total profit: $210,988
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34982

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $1,211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,266	-5% $1,238	+0% $1,211	+5% $1,183	+10% $1,156
Rent	-10% $1,035	-5% $1,123	+0% $1,211	+5% $1,299	+10% $1,387
Rate	-1.0pp $1,251	-0.5pp $1,231	base $1,211	+0.5pp $1,190	+1.0pp $1,169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Melton Dr Unit B Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	24d	1	0.44mi
341 Ashley St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$2,460	$2.18	24d	1	0.61mi
394 Salisbury Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,500	$1.38	14d	1	0.62mi
389 Salisbury Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$3,200	$1.77	24d	1	0.63mi
587 Salisbury Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,350	$1.30	14d	1	0.65mi
423 Salisbury Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,500	$1.38	24d	1	0.65mi
355 Johnston St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.5	1118	$2,500	$2.24	24d	1	0.65mi
352 Johnston St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	24d	1	0.68mi
492 Salisbury Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1486	$2,395	$1.61	24d	1	0.70mi
526 Salisbury Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1486	$2,399	$1.61	14d	1	0.72mi
330 Borraclough St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,175	$1.55	14d	1	0.75mi
5300 Seagrape Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	24d	1	0.84mi
5315 Hickory Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,045	$1.46	24d	1	1.00mi
699 W Weatherbee Rd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,875	$1.70	24d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 217 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 216 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    status Active
18. 2026-04-15
    historical
19. 2026-01-08
    price $79,900
20. 2025-10-17
    listed $82,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $14,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,383
• After-tax cash flow: $11,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian River Estates

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian River Estates, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 27,447
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,143
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1086.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.47%
• Current HPI: 397.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $79,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $82,900 Beaches MLS