8573 Elkrun Dr · Independence, MI 48348

$164,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,409 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1989 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very big yard in the City, a quiet neighborhood with very close views of the river. This eclectic colonial home has all the cuteness (1,180 SF), there's one room on the main floor that would make a great office facing Chester St, a fireplace in the living room (seller says an inspector informed them it needs a new liner in order to use), a nice big laundry room that could possibly be a 3rd bedroom with some minor adjustments. Newer gas forced air furnace, newer electric water heater, plumbed for a water softener (included in sale, just not hooked up), 1/2 bath on the main floor, full bath on the 2nd floor.

Key facts

• Big yard
• Views of the river
• Big laundry room

Tags

• BIG YARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• VIEWS OF THE RIVER
• OFFICE FACING CHESTER ST
• FIREPLACE IN THE LIVING ROOM
• BIG LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (no attached garage)
• Utilities: Sewer: Other
• Home design: Bi-level home; Built in 1989
• Construction: Stone construction
• Exterior features: Lot in the Deer Creek subdivision; Lot dimensions approximately 135 x 230

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances listed as other)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (including a primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: 5 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Side entry door; Finished basement; Other appliances (unspecified); Laundry features: other / see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (details: other / see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clarkston Community School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #69 of 540 in MI (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 19 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $635k (79%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $164,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.73%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $576,121
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6571 Deer Ridge Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,464 (+2%)	4mo	$525,000	$152	74
6600 Park Valley Dr	0.29mi	4/3.5	3,578 (+5%)	12mo	$660,250	$185	68
8291 Fawn Valley Cir	0.39mi	4/3.5	3,623 (+6%)	8mo	$555,000	$153	65
6871 Berry Pointe Dr	0.47mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,400 (-0%)	10mo	$575,000	$169	64
8177 Fawn Valley Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	3,278 (-4%)	12mo	$469,900	$143	56
6847 Hubbard Cir	0.54mi	4/2.5	3,530 (+4%)	14mo	$635,000	$180	54
8140 Staghorn Trl	0.55mi	4/2.5	3,645 (+7%)	11mo	$565,000	$155	50
6751 Berry Pointe Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	3,047 (-11%)	4mo	$668,000	$219	46
8085 Deerwood Rd	0.65mi	4/2.5	3,596 (+6%)	14mo	$595,000	$165	44
8094 Deerwood Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5	3,160 (-7%)	11mo	$475,000	$150	43
6866 Williamsbury Cir	0.69mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,822 (+12%)	2mo	$680,000	$178	41
8000 Barrington Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5	3,024 (-11%)	5mo	$550,000	$182	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $14,309
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $65,386
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48348

• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $701	+0% $644	+5% $587	+10% $530
Rent	-10% $465	-5% $555	+0% $644	+5% $733	+10% $822
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $686	base $644	+0.5pp $601	+1.0pp $557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 613-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $164,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $5,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,301
• After-tax cash flow: $6,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarkston Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2609900
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,317
• Composite: 48.04/100
• National rank: #2193
• State rank: #69 of 540 in MI

Livability — Independence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,574
• Household income: $129,410
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 212.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.65%
• Current HPI: 196.4302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+873.8% since first listed

51 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Sold (MLS) $779,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2026-04-30 Sold (MLS) $779,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $779,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $779,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $779,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-07 Listed $799,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $799,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-06 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $164,900 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2025-05-19 Listed $164,900 REALCOMP
• 2012-10-26 Sold (MLS) $341,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-10-26 Sold (MLS) $341,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-08-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-08-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-07-19 Listed $367,500 REALCOMP
• 2012-07-19 Listed $367,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-02 Sold (MLS) $425,000 REALCOMP
• 2006-11-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-11-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-11-14 Listed $489,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-09-01 Listed $575,000 REALCOMP
• 2006-09-01 Listed $575,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-08-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-08-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-02-18 Listed $610,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-02-18 Listed $610,000 REALCOMP
• 2006-02-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-02-10 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-11-10 Listed $625,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-11-10 Listed $625,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-11-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-11-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-05-02 Listed $625,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-05-02 Listed $625,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-16 Sold (MLS) $550,000 REALCOMP
• 2000-04-11 Listed $585,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $437,500 Public Records
• 1999-01-15 Sold (MLS) $437,500 REALCOMP
• 1998-07-23 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1998-07-23 Listed $475,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-04-03 Listed $498,000 REALCOMP
• 1997-12-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1997-09-12 Listed $549,900 REALCOMP
• 1994-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $363,925 Public Records
• 1991-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1991-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,332 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.