4315 N Flowing Wells Rd #59 · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$12,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1967 3,504 sqft lot $19/sqft · 33% below area Est $18k · 33% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy living in this well-kept home located in a desirable 55+ community! This charming property has been lovingly maintained and offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle perfect for enjoying your next chapter. You'll appreciate the covered parking for added convenience and protection from the Arizona sun, along with a spacious storage shed -- ideal for tools, hobbies, or extra belongings and a screened-in patio. The community features a swimming pool, recreation center, putting green, and shuffleboard courts -- perfect for staying active, social, and connected with neighbors.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Screened-in patio
• Swimming pool

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• SWIMMING POOL
• RECREATION CENTER
• PUTTING GREEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($880 rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $11k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 67.6% vs local median 6.1% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $83 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $360 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $10,920 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 67.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 218.81%
• DSCR: 10.74
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $17,926
• List price: $12,000
• Delta: -33.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1741 W Wetmore Rd #3	0.34mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-6%)	3mo	$10,000	$17	67
1741 W Wetmore Rd #4	0.34mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-6%)	8mo	$13,100	$22	64
1358 W Mohawk Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (+13%)	0mo	$115,000	$160	49
1741 W Wetmore Rd #33	0.38mi	2/2.0 (+1)	720 (+13%)	5mo	$16,000	$22	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.35×
• Total profit: $34,761
• Equity at exit: $1,789

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.28×
• Total profit: $71,514
• Equity at exit: $1,038

Cash invested: $3,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $105

Max offer price $12,000

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,000
• Closing costs: $360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1089 W Schafer Dr Unit 4 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	350	$750	$2.14	21d	1	0.35mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$798	$1.27	43d	4	0.52mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-14 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	670	$895	$1.34	43d	1	0.53mi
3802 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	555	$800	$1.44	43d	5	0.67mi
1990 W Amy Pl Unit B Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$900	$1.50	20d	1	0.78mi
620 W Limberlost Dr Unit E24 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,200	$1.79	23d	1	0.81mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$823	$1.33	1d	25	0.91mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	686	$1,343	$1.96	44d	1	0.92mi
3700 N Fairview Ave Unit 104 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	444	$949	$2.14	3d	1	1.01mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	43d	1	1.03mi
532 W Simmons Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	566	$1,000	$1.77	17d	1	1.14mi
239 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	680	$795	$1.17	43d	1	1.23mi
570 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$800	$1.02	43d	13	1.23mi
520 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	557	$838	$1.50	3d	16	1.30mi
115 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,025	$1.27	23d	1	1.35mi
311 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	21d	1	1.37mi
13 E Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	420	$653	$1.55	21d	1	1.42mi
15 E Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	420	$543	$1.29	3d	1	1.42mi
30 E Camino Villas Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	440	$753	$1.71	21d	1	1.45mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$695	$1.11	15d	21	1.47mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$929	$1.49	43d	1	1.47mi
3985 N Stone Ave Unit 248 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$979	$1.40	11d	1	1.48mi
3985 N Stone Ave Unit 251 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$695	$1.39	11d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $12,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $12,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $12,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $12,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $12,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $12,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $12,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $12,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $12,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $12,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $12,000 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Welcome to easy living in this well-kept home located in a desirable 55+ community! This charming property has been lovingly maintained and offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle perfect for enjoying your next chapter. You'll appreciate the covered parking for added convenience and protection from the Arizona sun, along with a spacious storage shed -- ideal for tools, hobbies, or extra belongings and a screened-in patio. The community features a swimming pool, recreation center, putting green, and shuffleboard courts -- perfect for staying active, social, and connected with neighbors.

16. 2026-03-06
    listed $17,000 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Welcome to easy living in this well-kept home located in a desirable 55+ community! This charming property has been lovingly maintained and offers a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle perfect for enjoying your next chapter. You'll appreciate the covered parking for added convenience and protection from the Arizona sun, along with a spacious storage shed -- ideal for tools, hobbies, or extra belongings and a screened-in patio. The community features a swimming pool, recreation center, putting green, and shuffleboard courts -- perfect for staying active, social, and connected with neighbors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$672
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$60
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$845
• − Management: −$845
• − Depreciation: −$349
• Taxable income: $7,614
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,827
• After-tax cash flow: $5,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-29.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $12,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-06 Listed $17,000 MLSSAZ