Ashton Plan · Canandaigua, NY 14424

$132,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 553 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 553 days

🏗️ New construction. The $132,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $70,479.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $133k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman) (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #519 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $487 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $116,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.27%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,479
• List price: $132,900
• Delta: 88.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
218 Crabapple	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (0%)	18mo	$40,000	$27	74
420 Mountain Ash Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	15mo	$73,500	$53	69
237 Crabapple Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+10%)	7mo	$46,000	$29	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $72,041
• Equity at exit: $10,509

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.5%
• Equity multiple: 11.43×
• Total profit: $205,794
• Equity at exit: $6,094

Cash invested: $19,734 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$370
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,057/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $1,139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $617

Max offer price $70,479

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,188	-5% $1,163	+0% $1,139	+5% $1,115	+10% $1,090
Rent	-10% $977	-5% $1,058	+0% $1,139	+5% $1,220	+10% $1,302
Rate	-1.0pp $1,175	-0.5pp $1,157	base $1,139	+0.5pp $1,121	+1.0pp $1,102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,620
• Closing costs: $2,114
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,900 Active 553 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,900 Active 552 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,900 Active 551 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,900 Active 550 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,900 Active 548 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $132,900 Active 545 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,900 Active 544 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,900 Active 543 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $132,900 Active 542 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $132,900 Active 539 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,900 Active 538 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,900 Active 537 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,900 Active 536 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,900 Active 535 DOM
15. 2024-12-13
    listed $132,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,057
• − Insurance: −$352
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$2,050
• Taxable income: $13,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,202
• After-tax cash flow: $10,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor updates inside can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor updates inside can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman)
• NCES district ID: 3612300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,088
• Composite: 34.33/100
• National rank: #5233
• State rank: #519 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Listed $132,900 Zillow