134 Kelburn St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1900 3,000 sqft lot $119/sqft · 31% below area Est $245k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In Ready 2/1 Double – Ideal for Investors or Owner-Occupants. Don’t miss this beautifully updated 2/1 double offering a fantastic opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants. This property has undergone extensive renovations, making it truly move-in ready and low-maintenance from day one. Each unit features a refreshed kitchen complete with new sinks, faucets, and modern countertops, complemented by all-new lighting that brightens every space. Major mechanical updates include new plumbing and a new furnace, providing peace of mind for years to come. Stylish new flooring runs throughout the property, paired with fresh paint in every room to create a clean, contemporary feel. Charming barn doors add a touch of character and uniqueness, setting this home apart from the rest. Safety is also top of mind with newly installed smoke and CO2 detectors. Conveniently located with easy access to the I-190, this property offers quick connections to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio or live in one unit while generating rental income from the other, this property checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New plumbing
• Fresh paint

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,143/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 841% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $170k implies a 467% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.10%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,855
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -30.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
191 Weimar St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (-0%)	20mo	$117,500	$83	59
1523 Seneca St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,389 (-3%)	10mo	$235,000	$169	56
77 Pontiac St	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (-3%)	7mo	$185,000	$133	50
116 Barnard St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+3%)	22mo	$124,000	$84	49
305 S Ogden St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+6%)	7mo	$223,000	$147	46
452 Willett St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+11%)	7mo	$130,000	$82	41
127 Barnard St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,628 (+14%)	10mo	$260,000	$160	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $113,797
• Equity at exit: $129,829

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $297,964
• Equity at exit: $258,357

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,284

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $774	-5% $726	+0% $678	+5% $630	+10% $582
Rent	-10% $509	-5% $594	+0% $678	+5% $763	+10% $848
Rate	-1.0pp $764	-0.5pp $721	base $678	+0.5pp $634	+1.0pp $589

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,142
Total (2 units)			$2,143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.67mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	16d	1	0.83mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	3d	1	0.84mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	25d	1	0.88mi
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	45d	1	0.91mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	25d	1	1.01mi
214 Abbott Rd Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,200	$1.27	16d	1	1.13mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	45d	1	1.17mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	3d	1	1.26mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	1.31mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	16d	1	1.33mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	12d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $170,000 1184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

   Move-In Ready 2/1 Double – Ideal for Investors or Owner-Occupants. Don’t miss this beautifully updated 2/1 double offering a fantastic opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants. This property has undergone extensive renovations, making it truly move-in ready and low-maintenance from day one. Each unit features a refreshed kitchen complete with new sinks, faucets, and modern countertops, complemented by all-new lighting that brightens every space. Major mechanical updates include new plumbing and a new furnace, providing peace of mind for years to come. Stylish new flooring runs throughout the property, paired with fresh paint in every room to create a clean, contemporary feel. Charming barn doors add a touch of character and uniqueness, setting this home apart from the rest. Safety is also top of mind with newly installed smoke and CO2 detectors. Conveniently located with easy access to the I-190, this property offers quick connections to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio or live in one unit while generating rental income from the other, this property checks all the boxes.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $174,900 1184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

   Move-In Ready 2/1 Double – Ideal for Investors or Owner-Occupants. Don’t miss this beautifully updated 2/1 double offering a fantastic opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants. This property has undergone extensive renovations, making it truly move-in ready and low-maintenance from day one. Each unit features a refreshed kitchen complete with new sinks, faucets, and modern countertops, complemented by all-new lighting that brightens every space. Major mechanical updates include new plumbing and a new furnace, providing peace of mind for years to come. Stylish new flooring runs throughout the property, paired with fresh paint in every room to create a clean, contemporary feel. Charming barn doors add a touch of character and uniqueness, setting this home apart from the rest. Safety is also top of mind with newly installed smoke and CO2 detectors. Conveniently located with easy access to the I-190, this property offers quick connections to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio or live in one unit while generating rental income from the other, this property checks all the boxes.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $179,900 Active 1184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

   Move-In Ready 2/1 Double – Ideal for Investors or Owner-Occupants. Don’t miss this beautifully updated 2/1 double offering a fantastic opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants. This property has undergone extensive renovations, making it truly move-in ready and low-maintenance from day one. Each unit features a refreshed kitchen complete with new sinks, faucets, and modern countertops, complemented by all-new lighting that brightens every space. Major mechanical updates include new plumbing and a new furnace, providing peace of mind for years to come. Stylish new flooring runs throughout the property, paired with fresh paint in every room to create a clean, contemporary feel. Charming barn doors add a touch of character and uniqueness, setting this home apart from the rest. Safety is also top of mind with newly installed smoke and CO2 detectors. Conveniently located with easy access to the I-190, this property offers quick connections to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio or live in one unit while generating rental income from the other, this property checks all the boxes.

4. 2023-10-06
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,751 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,122/yr (+$94/mo · 178.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $5,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $6,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+466.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $174,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $629 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.