3071 Lyth Rd · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1945 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own a two-family unit located in the Town of Hamburg with West Seneca schools and Allendale Elementary. Both units have two bedrooms and a full bath along with an expansive yard. Newer metal roof approx 8 years old and overall solid mechanics and separate utilities. The 2.5 car garage is a bonus. Close proximity to all major conveniences. 24 hours minimum advance notice required. Seller will review offers as received while reserving the right to establish an offer deadline.

Key facts

• Solid mechanics
• Separate utilities
• Expansive yard

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY UNIT
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• SOLID MECHANICS
• SEPARATE UTILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owner pays water; water included in rent (rental information provided); Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Garage available; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces; Concrete parking; common area parking; two or more spaces
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical system
• Home design: Single-story building; Resale property; Rectangular residential lot with city street frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Two-unit property (unit-level details not provided)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (total for property)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Full basement; Carpet and hardwood flooring with luxury vinyl in areas; flooring varies
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $122/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $159k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.58%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,072
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,856
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,757/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 82%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,950
Total (2 units)			$1,950

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $159,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 499-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $159,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,757 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,757 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$4,757
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $572
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$137
• After-tax cash flow: $2,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+88.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $159,000 WNYREIS
• 1995-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,757 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.