18 Chapel St · Belfast, NY 14711

$95,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1920 6,534 sqft lot Est $85k · 12% over ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained and lovingly cared-for home located in Belfast NY, proudly owned by the same family for over 55 years. This 5-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers room to grow, inside and out! Step inside to find a spacious eat-in kitchen with newer appliances and direct access to a covered back porch perfect for enjoying your cup of coffee or entertaining family and friends. The kitchen also features a bonus pantry or potential office space for added flexibility. The first-floor bedroom has a half bath that is ideal for guests or one-level living, while four additional bedrooms upstairs share a large, updated full bath. Enjoy gatherings in the oversized living room and host din

Key facts

• First-floor bedroom
• Formal dining room
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• BONUS PANTRY
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#927 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Belfast Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #577 of 755 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,864
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Chapel St	0.00mi	5/1.5	1,632 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$52	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $47,169
• Equity at exit: $60,428

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $123,824
• Equity at exit: $110,197

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14711

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,374/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $931

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $325	+0% $298	+5% $272	+10% $245
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $247	+0% $298	+5% $350	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $323	base $298	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   soldstatus $85,000
2. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-13
   listed $95,000 Active
4. 2026-01-12
   historical
5. 2025-10-20
   price $95,000
6. 2025-09-22
   price $100,000
7. 2025-08-20
   price $120,000
8. 2025-07-03
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,374 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,374 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,374
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
• − Management: −$1,257
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,260
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$542
• After-tax cash flow: $3,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belfast Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604350
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,217
• Composite: 40.14/100
• National rank: #7847
• State rank: #577 of 755 in NY

Livability — Belfast

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #927
• US rank: #18080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belfast, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,861

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 286.2504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-32.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $95,000 CNYIS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $95,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $100,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $120,000 CNYIS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $125,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,374 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.