833 Blue Heron · Paloma Creek, TX 76227

$6,511

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2008 $4/sqft · 98% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning single story home is nestled on a great cul-de-sac lot! Inside offers attractive hardwood floors, neutral paint plus an amazing open floor plan. Flex space between the dual secondary bedrooms would make a great play or game room! Kitchen features a large island, granite, electric cooktop, stainless steel appliances plus an abundance of cabinets! Spacious Living Room offers a warming brick fireplace. Master Suite with plush carpet, high ceilings plus an attached bathroom! Nicely sized guest bedrooms! HUGE backyard with an open patio has plenty of space for a pool! Great community with parks, playground plus a pool to enjoy!

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Open floor plan
• Large island

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• ELECTRIC COOKTOP
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $6,511 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$328,809) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $7k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $7k).
• Recommended offer: $6k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 304.8% vs local median 4.4% in Paloma Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#125 in TX, #3,857 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $45 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $195 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($6k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $243k (97%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,315 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 32.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 304.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1066.19%
• DSCR: 48.44
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,809
• List price: $6,511
• Delta: -98.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1013 Warbler	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,733 (0%)	0mo	$290,000	$167	95
1621 Canvasback	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,733 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$159	75
1529 Cardinal Way	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (+2%)	2mo	$254,900	$143	66
1682 Chukar Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+5%)	1mo	$260,000	$143	66
513 Partridge Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,862 (+7%)	2mo	$289,000	$155	64
1313 Catbird Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,883 (+9%)	2mo	$299,000	$159	61
952 Lost Mine Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-7%)	3mo	$314,990	$196	60
1701 Sparrow Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-12%)	0mo	$256,500	$167	60
940 Apeldoorn Trl	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,944 (+12%)	3mo	$357,990	$184	49
928 Lost Mine Trl	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,944 (+12%)	3mo	$324,990	$167	48
920 Apeldoorn Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-13%)	2mo	$359,970	$240	48
916 Collegiate Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,944 (+12%)	2mo	$369,990	$190	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 53.64×
• Total profit: $95,966
• Equity at exit: $971

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 106.68×
• Total profit: $192,669
• Equity at exit: $563

Cash invested: $1,823 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$34
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$8 /mo · $98/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $1,620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $57

Max offer price $6,511

Occupancy floor 18%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,624	-5% $1,622	+0% $1,620	+5% $1,618	+10% $1,615
Rent	-10% $1,453	-5% $1,537	+0% $1,620	+5% $1,703	+10% $1,786
Rate	-1.0pp $1,623	-0.5pp $1,621	base $1,620	+0.5pp $1,618	+1.0pp $1,616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,628
• Closing costs: $195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
832 Blue Heron Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2060	$2,000	$0.97	13d	1	0.04mi
904 Starling Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,760	$1.13	22d	1	0.19mi
1050 Warbler Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2166	$2,099	$0.97	11d	1	0.22mi
1054 Warbler Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,300	$1.53	44d	1	0.23mi
1044 Aviary Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2166	$2,200	$1.02	44d	1	0.24mi
916 Partridge Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2081	$2,300	$1.11	44d	1	0.32mi
1412 Morning Dove Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2166	$1,995	$0.92	21d	1	0.36mi
1306 Vireo Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1777	$1,900	$1.07	25d	1	0.36mi
1134 Partridge Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$2,190	$1.16	2d	1	0.40mi
1235 Cardinal Way Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$6,100	$3.68	11d	1	0.41mi
1404 Bluebird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$2,145	$1.08	5d	1	0.44mi
1700 Sparrow Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,100	$1.25	7d	1	0.44mi
1700 Sparrow Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,100	$1.25	13d	1	0.44mi
304 Hummingbird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,220	$1.08	8d	1	0.45mi
1313 Catbird Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	44d	1	0.47mi
1604 Flamingo Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	2011	$2,280	$1.13	0d	1	0.48mi
1704 Flamingo Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,150	$1.17	44d	1	0.55mi
1701 Heron Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2062	$2,100	$1.02	6d	1	0.57mi
1829 Nightingale Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$1,800	$0.96	21d	1	0.61mi
1726 Duck Cove Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,800	$0.99	25d	1	0.61mi
629 Hummingbird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2153	$2,500	$1.16	44d	1	0.63mi
825 Apeldoorn Trl Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,350	$1.21	2d	1	0.65mi
1921 Nightingale Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,895	$1.19	6d	1	0.66mi
211 Parakeet Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1975	$2,350	$1.19	44d	1	0.68mi
1508 Pelican Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	3.5	2180	$2,390	$1.10	19d	1	0.69mi
1501 Toucan Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2061	$2,600	$1.26	7d	1	0.80mi
1608 Emma Pearl Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1970	$2,450	$1.24	13d	1	0.80mi
1416 Toucan Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,195	$1.28	44d	1	0.82mi
10345 Nantucket Dr Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.5	2174	$2,175	$1.00	44d	1	0.82mi
1221 Bristol Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,950	$1.50	44d	1	0.84mi
1409 Rosson Rd Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$1,950	$1.04	13d	1	0.84mi
1524 Toucan Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1713	$2,100	$1.23	11d	1	0.84mi
1524 Toucan Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1713	$2,200	$1.28	44d	1	0.84mi
10200 Cedar Lake Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1493	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.90mi
10301 Waterbury Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,899	$1.13	44d	1	0.91mi
713 Meandering Trl Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,095	$1.52	18d	1	0.91mi
10237 Nantucket Dr Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.5	2010	$2,510	$1.25	17d	1	0.95mi
10232 Waterbury Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,650	$0.98	25d	1	0.95mi
1116 Oakcrest Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,795	$1.07	21d	1	0.96mi
720 Field Xing Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,850	$1.48	8d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $6,511 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $6,511 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $6,511 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $6,511 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $6,511 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $6,511 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $6,511 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $6,511 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $6,511 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $6,511 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $6,511 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    listed $6,511 Active 639-char remark
13. 2020-11-04
    soldstatus
14. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus Sold 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Stunning single story home is nestled on a great cul-de-sac lot! Inside offers attractive hardwood floors, neutral paint plus an amazing open floor plan. Flex space between the dual secondary bedrooms would make a great play or game room! Kitchen features a large island, granite, electric cooktop, stainless steel appliances plus an abundance of cabinets! Spacious Living Room offers a warming brick fireplace. Master Suite with plush carpet, high ceilings plus an attached bathroom! Nicely sized guest bedrooms! HUGE backyard with an open patio has plenty of space for a pool! Great community with parks, playground plus a pool to enjoy!

15. 2020-10-05
    listed $250,000 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Stunning single story home is nestled on a great cul-de-sac lot! Inside offers attractive hardwood floors, neutral paint plus an amazing open floor plan. Flex space between the dual secondary bedrooms would make a great play or game room! Kitchen features a large island, granite, electric cooktop, stainless steel appliances plus an abundance of cabinets! Spacious Living Room offers a warming brick fireplace. Master Suite with plush carpet, high ceilings plus an attached bathroom! Nicely sized guest bedrooms! HUGE backyard with an open patio has plenty of space for a pool! Great community with parks, playground plus a pool to enjoy!

16. 2020-10-05
    historical 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Stunning single story home is nestled on a great cul-de-sac lot! Inside offers attractive hardwood floors, neutral paint plus an amazing open floor plan. Flex space between the dual secondary bedrooms would make a great play or game room! Kitchen features a large island, granite, electric cooktop, stainless steel appliances plus an abundance of cabinets! Spacious Living Room offers a warming brick fireplace. Master Suite with plush carpet, high ceilings plus an attached bathroom! Nicely sized guest bedrooms! HUGE backyard with an open patio has plenty of space for a pool! Great community with parks, playground plus a pool to enjoy!

17. 2016-09-21
    soldstatus
18. 2016-09-20
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Better than New! Enjoy this recently remodeled home located in a quiet culdesac, backs to corps of eng. property. Updates inc all new flooring, granite, new appliances. Fresh paint in and out, newly stained fence and deck. New fans and lighting. Floorplan boasts split bedrooms and extra living area that would make great office, TV room, kids play room. Almost a quarter acre lot with TONS of room to roam. Shed stays. Don't miss this one!

19. 2016-08-29
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Better than New! Enjoy this recently remodeled home located in a quiet culdesac, backs to corps of eng. property. Updates inc all new flooring, granite, new appliances. Fresh paint in and out, newly stained fence and deck. New fans and lighting. Floorplan boasts split bedrooms and extra living area that would make great office, TV room, kids play room. Almost a quarter acre lot with TONS of room to roam. Shed stays. Don't miss this one!

20. 2016-08-19
    historical Active Option Contract

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Better than New! Enjoy this recently remodeled home located in a quiet culdesac, backs to corps of eng. property. Updates inc all new flooring, granite, new appliances. Fresh paint in and out, newly stained fence and deck. New fans and lighting. Floorplan boasts split bedrooms and extra living area that would make great office, TV room, kids play room. Almost a quarter acre lot with TONS of room to roam. Shed stays. Don't miss this one!

21. 2016-08-16
    listed $209,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Better than New! Enjoy this recently remodeled home located in a quiet culdesac, backs to corps of eng. property. Updates inc all new flooring, granite, new appliances. Fresh paint in and out, newly stained fence and deck. New fans and lighting. Floorplan boasts split bedrooms and extra living area that would make great office, TV room, kids play room. Almost a quarter acre lot with TONS of room to roam. Shed stays. Don't miss this one!

22. 2016-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$365
• − Property taxes: −$98
• − Insurance: −$33
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$189
• Taxable income: $20,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,934
• After-tax cash flow: $14,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paloma Creek

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #3857

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paloma Creek, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 55,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2020-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-10-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2020-10-05 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2016-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-08-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-08-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-08-16 Listed $209,900 NTREIS
• 2016-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,915 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.