5465 NE Minnow Ln · Elgin, OK 73538

$396,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Land · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning new construction with designer finishes and a modern, open layout! This home features a show-stopping kitchen with quartz countertops, custom cabinetry, gas range, and a large island, plus a striking fireplace that anchors the spacious living area. The primary suite offers a spa-like feel with a dramatic walk-in shower and upscale finishes. Complete with a 3-car garage, stylish lighting, and thoughtful details throughout—this one stands out from the rest! Offering 4 bed, 2 bath, large living room, large primary walk-in shower and approximately 2100 sqft! Call Misty Julian, Listing Broker at 580-656-1909 for more information or to setup a private showing!!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3 covered parking spaces; 3-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway (open parking available)
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Paved road access; New construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Range hood; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Pantry; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $396k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (47.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 5.1% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#17 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Ms (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 345 statewide, top 15%, 791 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,492 (47.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.79%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $146,308
• Equity at exit: $356,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $485,487
• Equity at exit: $769,341

Cash invested: $110,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73538

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,077
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$495 /mo · $5,940/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-1,090

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,464

Max offer price $238,336

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-816	-5% $-953	+0% $-1,090	+5% $-1,226	+10% $-1,363
Rent	-10% $-1,254	-5% $-1,172	+0% $-1,090	+5% $-1,007	+10% $-925
Rate	-1.0pp $-890	-0.5pp $-989	base $-1,090	+0.5pp $-1,192	+1.0pp $-1,297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,000
• Closing costs: $11,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 Kensington Ln Elgin, OK	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1414	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $396,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $396,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $396,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $396,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $396,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $396,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $396,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $396,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $396,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $396,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $396,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $396,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $396,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $396,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $396,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $396,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $396,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,182
• − Property taxes: −$5,940
• − Insurance: −$1,980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − Depreciation: −$11,520
• Taxable loss: −$20,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,945
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin
• NCES district ID: 4010710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,900
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6432
• State rank: #38 of 270 in OK

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #5411

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 7,128
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,128
• Household income: $91,324
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 45.70%
• Current HPI: 245.4249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $396,000 LBRMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.