4312 Melton Rd · Bagdad, FL 32583

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1962 9,975 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A fixer-upper with great potential for expansion. Whether you would like to live in it or as an investment for resale or rent, it is worth a visit to envision how you can turn this diamond in the rough into the envy of the block. It has been well lived-in, but the bones are still there. Needs TLC and elbow grease. Once you see property, you will appreciate the length of the property with access from Melton Rd and around the block from Holland Rd. Location has practical access to major arteries for easy access to Milton, Pace, US-90, I-10. So do not dismiss this opportunity! Come take a good look and see the potential. All interested parties to verify all measurements, conditions, and all due diligence as needed. AS IS with all faults and defects.

Key facts

• Upgraded bathroom
• Updated hvac system
• Front porch

Tags

• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED HVAC SYSTEM
• UPDATED WATER HEATER
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UPGRADED BATHROOM
• FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electric service with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: Single-story frame home; Off-grade foundation
• Construction: Shingle roof; Frame construction; Off-grade foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Chain link fence; Central access lot feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included; Energy Star qualified refrigerator and appliances; Updated cabinets and countertops; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12' x 15'); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each approx. 10' x 11')
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (updated within the past year)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; Recessed lighting; Updated bathroom with new vanity and toilet (updated within 1 year); Updated kitchen with new appliances, cabinets and countertops (updated within 1 year)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.0% in Bagdad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bagdad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 69% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 822 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $175k implies a 338% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,878 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,699
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,199
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 822
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $649/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,322

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $197	+0% $147	+5% $98	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $88	+0% $147	+5% $207	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $192	base $147	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Contingent 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Contingent 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Contingent 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Contingent 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $175,000 Contingent 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Contingent 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Contingent 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Contingent 30 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Contingent 29 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Contingent 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    historical Contingent
13. 2026-05-08
    price $175,000
14. 2026-05-02
    listed $180,000 Active
15. 2026-02-04
    soldstatus $40,000 Sold 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    A fixer-upper with great potential for expansion. Whether you would like to live in it or as an investment for resale or rent, it is worth a visit to envision how you can turn this diamond in the rough into the envy of the block. It has been well lived-in, but the bones are still there. Needs TLC and elbow grease. Once you see property, you will appreciate the length of the property with access from Melton Rd and around the block from Holland Rd. Location has practical access to major arteries for easy access to Milton, Pace, US-90, I-10. So do not dismiss this opportunity! Come take a good look and see the potential. All interested parties to verify all measurements, conditions, and all due diligence as needed. AS IS with all faults and defects.

16. 2026-02-01
    historical Contingent 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    A fixer-upper with great potential for expansion. Whether you would like to live in it or as an investment for resale or rent, it is worth a visit to envision how you can turn this diamond in the rough into the envy of the block. It has been well lived-in, but the bones are still there. Needs TLC and elbow grease. Once you see property, you will appreciate the length of the property with access from Melton Rd and around the block from Holland Rd. Location has practical access to major arteries for easy access to Milton, Pace, US-90, I-10. So do not dismiss this opportunity! Come take a good look and see the potential. All interested parties to verify all measurements, conditions, and all due diligence as needed. AS IS with all faults and defects.

17. 2026-01-23
    price $79,000 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    A fixer-upper with great potential for expansion. Whether you would like to live in it or as an investment for resale or rent, it is worth a visit to envision how you can turn this diamond in the rough into the envy of the block. It has been well lived-in, but the bones are still there. Needs TLC and elbow grease. Once you see property, you will appreciate the length of the property with access from Melton Rd and around the block from Holland Rd. Location has practical access to major arteries for easy access to Milton, Pace, US-90, I-10. So do not dismiss this opportunity! Come take a good look and see the potential. All interested parties to verify all measurements, conditions, and all due diligence as needed. AS IS with all faults and defects.

18. 2025-12-08
    price $90,000 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    A fixer-upper with great potential for expansion. Whether you would like to live in it or as an investment for resale or rent, it is worth a visit to envision how you can turn this diamond in the rough into the envy of the block. It has been well lived-in, but the bones are still there. Needs TLC and elbow grease. Once you see property, you will appreciate the length of the property with access from Melton Rd and around the block from Holland Rd. Location has practical access to major arteries for easy access to Milton, Pace, US-90, I-10. So do not dismiss this opportunity! Come take a good look and see the potential. All interested parties to verify all measurements, conditions, and all due diligence as needed. AS IS with all faults and defects.

19. 2025-11-22
    listed $100,000 Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    A fixer-upper with great potential for expansion. Whether you would like to live in it or as an investment for resale or rent, it is worth a visit to envision how you can turn this diamond in the rough into the envy of the block. It has been well lived-in, but the bones are still there. Needs TLC and elbow grease. Once you see property, you will appreciate the length of the property with access from Melton Rd and around the block from Holland Rd. Location has practical access to major arteries for easy access to Milton, Pace, US-90, I-10. So do not dismiss this opportunity! Come take a good look and see the potential. All interested parties to verify all measurements, conditions, and all due diligence as needed. AS IS with all faults and defects.

20. 1980-04-01
    soldstatus $5,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $649 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 124.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$649
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$290
• After-tax cash flow: $2,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2866.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $175,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $180,000 PARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Sold (MLS) $40,000 PARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $79,000 PARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $90,000 PARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listed $100,000 PARMLS
• 1980-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $649 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.