3818 Fm 312 · Winnsboro, TX 75494

$156,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 118 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition 0.86 ac lot $109/sqft · 29% below area Est $220k · 29% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.3

Listing remarks MLS

EXISTING HOME UPDATED WITH A NEW ADDITION ADDED TO IT, UPDATED WITH NEW ROOF, FLOORING, PLUMBING AND ELECTRICAL FIXTURES

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New flooring
• New addition

Tags

• NEW ADDITION
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL FIXTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $157k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.9% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winnsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winnsboro El (355 students, 71% FRL); Winnsboro J H (math 48% / reading 40%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 360 students, 53% FRL); Winnsboro H S (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 492 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,608 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.48%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,157
• List price: $156,900
• Delta: -28.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4172 N FM 312	0.86mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	12mo	$225,000	$155	54
734 County Road 4740	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	8mo	$279,900	$179	44
3235 N Fm 312	1.33mi	3/2.0	1,773 (+23%)	2mo	$715,000	$403	38
462 County Road 4730	1.83mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-11%)	20mo	$369,000	$286	27
1205 County Road 4730	1.21mi	3/3.0	1,632 (+13%)	51mo	$79,400	$49	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-42,840
• Equity at exit: $23,394

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-59,688
• Equity at exit: $13,566

Cash invested: $43,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75494

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$196 /mo · $2,354/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $117,297

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-165	-5% $-219	+0% $-274	+5% $-328	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-355	-5% $-314	+0% $-274	+5% $-233	+10% $-193
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-234	base $-274	+0.5pp $-314	+1.0pp $-356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,225
• Closing costs: $4,707
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured homeSingle-story
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: No fencingNo poolNo other structuresLot approximately 0.862 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater6 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $156,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $156,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $156,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $156,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $156,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $156,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $156,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $157,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $157,900 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $157,900 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $157,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $157,900 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $157,900 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $157,900 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $157,900 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $159,900 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $159,900 Active 92 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $159,900 Active 91 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    pricedays on market $159,900 Active 89 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $161,900 Active 88 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $161,900 Active 87 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $161,900 Active 86 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $161,900 Active 85 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $161,900 Active 84 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $161,900 Active 83 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    price $161,900 Active 82 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $163,900 Active 82 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $163,900 Active 81 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $163,900 Active 80 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $163,900 Active 79 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $163,900 Active 78 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $163,900 Active 77 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $163,900 Active 76 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $163,900 Active 75 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $163,900 Active 74 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $163,900 Active 73 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $163,900 Active 72 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $163,900 Active 71 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $163,900 Active 70 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $163,900 Active 69 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $163,900 Active 68 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $164,500 Active 67 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $164,500 Active 64 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 63 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $164,900 Active 62 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $164,900 Active 60 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $164,900 Active 59 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $164,900 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,789
• − Property taxes: −$2,354
• − Insurance: −$784
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$4,564
• Taxable loss: −$6,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,476
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This manufactured home has been updated with a new addition, new roof, flooring, plumbing, and electrical fixtures, making it move-in ready and suitable for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Add a small deck or patio area — Can increase both resale and rental value by providing outdoor living space ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Winnsboro El Middle Winnsboro J H D TX #512/1,662 Nat'l #4,963/14,009 High Winnsboro H S B- TX #199/1,632 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846200
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,192
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4769
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wood · 46,480 people
• Population (ZIP): 11,685
• Household income: $68,348
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.64%
• Current HPI: 234.6203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured homeSingle-story
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: No fencingNo poolNo other structuresLot approximately 0.862 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater6 total rooms

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-02 Price Changed $164,900 LAAR
• 2026-06-26 Price Changed $166,900 GTAR
• 2026-06-26 Price Changed $166,900 LAAR
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $167,900 GTAR
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $167,900 LAAR
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $168,900 GTAR
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $169,900 LAAR
• 2026-06-12 Listed $169,900 GTAR
• 2026-05-28 Listed $169,000 LAAR