115 Douglas Dr · Lakehurst, NJ 08527

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 130 Days on market

Built 1986 $69/sqft · 80% below area $531/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 115 Douglas Drive, an open concept home located in the Jackson Acres 55+ community. This well-maintained three bedroom, 2 bath home offers a functional and comfortable layout designed for easy living. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bath. All bedrooms offer ample closet space. The home features a private deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The laundry room has direct access to the backyard for added convenience. A carport offers covered parking, and an additional shed provides plenty of space for tools, bikes or seasonal items. Situated on a corner lot, this home combines privacy and close proximity to shopping, dining, and major roadways. A great opportunity to enjoy affordable living in Jackson, NJ

Key facts

• Private deck
• Covered parking
• Open concept home

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• PRIVATE DECK
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD
• COVERED PARKING
• ADDITIONAL SHED
• CORNER OF A QUIET STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#254 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Switlik Elementary School (math 24% / reading 41%, grade F, #656 of 1,303 statewide, top 51%, 809 students, 29% FRL); Carl W. Goetz Middle School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade D-, #167 of 431 statewide, top 41%, 989 students, 22% FRL); Jackson Memorial High School (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #166 of 399 statewide, top 42%, 1,499 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.31%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $512,660
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -80.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Hidden Hollow Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,338 (-8%)	1mo	$595,000	$445	62
616 Ollie Burke Rd	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,274 (-12%)	14mo	$590,000	$463	54
675 Ollie Burke Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-14%)	14mo	$470,000	$377	54
890 Lakehurst Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,562 (+7%)	13mo	$500,000	$320	51
771 Dorathys Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+14%)	18mo	$600,000	$362	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $68,241
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $143,406
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$531
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $1,477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,547

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,546	-5% $1,512	+0% $1,477	+5% $1,443	+10% $1,408
Rent	-10% $1,207	-5% $1,342	+0% $1,477	+5% $1,612	+10% $1,747
Rate	-1.0pp $1,528	-0.5pp $1,503	base $1,477	+0.5pp $1,451	+1.0pp $1,425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $531 · $6,372/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $100,000 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Welcome to 115 Douglas Drive, an open concept home located in the Jackson Acres 55+ community. This well-maintained three bedroom, 2 bath home offers a functional and comfortable layout designed for easy living. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bath. All bedrooms offer ample closet space. The home features a private deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The laundry room has direct access to the backyard for added convenience. A carport offers covered parking, and an additional shed provides plenty of space for tools, bikes or seasonal items. Situated on a corner lot, this home combines privacy and close proximity to shopping, dining, and major roadways. A great opportunity to enjoy affordable living in Jackson, NJ

17. 2026-02-12
    listed $110,000 Active 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Welcome to 115 Douglas Drive, an open concept home located in the Jackson Acres 55+ community. This well-maintained three bedroom, 2 bath home offers a functional and comfortable layout designed for easy living. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bath. All bedrooms offer ample closet space. The home features a private deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The laundry room has direct access to the backyard for added convenience. A carport offers covered parking, and an additional shed provides plenty of space for tools, bikes or seasonal items. Situated on a corner lot, this home combines privacy and close proximity to shopping, dining, and major roadways. A great opportunity to enjoy affordable living in Jackson, NJ

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-10-17
    price $126,900
20. 2025-10-17
    price $126,900
21. 2025-10-02
    price $131,900
22. 2025-10-02
    price $131,900
23. 2025-09-19
    price $133,900
24. 2025-09-19
    price $133,900
25. 2025-08-04
    price $135,900
26. 2025-08-04
    price $135,900
27. 2025-07-21
    price $147,500
28. 2025-07-21
    price $147,500
29. 2025-06-25
    listed $155,000 Active
30. 2025-06-25
    listed $155,000 Active
31. 2006-05-25
    soldstatus $67,500
32. 2006-02-21
    listed $71,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,280
• − Management: −$3,280
• − HOA: −$6,372
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $17,558
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,214
• After-tax cash flow: $13,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lakehurst

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #7255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living D Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+39.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $100,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $110,000 MOMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $126,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $126,900 MOMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $131,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $131,900 MOMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $133,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $133,900 MOMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $135,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $135,900 MOMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $147,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $147,500 MOMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $155,000 MOMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-05-25 Sold (MLS) $67,500 MOMLS
• 2006-02-21 Listed $71,900 MOMLS