253 Provincial Ln Unit C · Avon, IN 46123

$195,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,216 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1999 $200/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL TOWNHOUSE CONDO W/9' CEILINGS AND LARGE WINDOWS CREATE AN OPEN & BRIGHT FLOOR PLAN.KITCHEN HAS BREAKFAST BAR AND BUILT-IN MICROWAVE.LARGE MASTER HAS 2 CLOSETS.CONVENIENT UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY.GOOD STORAGE SPACE.1 C AR ATTACHED GARAGE.CUTE PATIO IN FRONT.QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD,CLOSE TO EVERYTHING.WATER INCLUDED IN MAINTENANCE FEE.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New flooring
• Two levels

Tags

• UPDATED CONDOMINIUM
• TWO LEVELS
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED LIGHT FIXTURES
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mandatory fee ownership interest
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $200; HOA covers lawn care, snow removal, and trash; Community snow removal and trash services

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Municipal sewer connected; No solid waste service listed
• Home design: Residential condominium (attached); Horizontal condo, ground-level description; Two levels; Entry/facing information not provided
• Construction: Vinyl with brick and brick exterior; Full foundation and slab
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; 1 common wall; Less than 1/4 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#75 in IN, #4,686 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Avon Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in IN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Avon High School (math 44% / reading 76%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,348 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 20% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Hendricks County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hendricks County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $177,882 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-37,656
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-40,275
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46123

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,934/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,960

Max offer price $177,882

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
481 Villa Meadow Dr Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,900	$1.46	23d	1	0.18mi
9661 Trail Dr Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,925	$1.33	17d	1	0.27mi
9762 Trail Dr Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,901	$1.57	2d	1	0.35mi
556 Dylan Dr Avon, IN	2.0	2.0	1238	$1,875	$1.51	23d	1	0.43mi
567 Dylan Dr Unit 556 Avon, IN	2.0	2.0	1238	$1,875	$1.51	23d	1	0.49mi
10272 Steeplechase Dr Avon, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,578	$1.68	1d	42	0.61mi
781 Hollowood Ln Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,800	$1.31	43d	1	0.63mi
129 Satori Pkwy Avon, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,840	$1.85	2d	30	0.87mi
129 Satori Pkwy Avon, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,840	$1.85	43d	18	0.87mi
539 Sun Ridge Blvd Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,800	$1.47	21d	1	1.06mi
10435 Cox Pl Indianapolis, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,625	$1.63	43d	1	1.06mi
8335 Eagles Nest Dr Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,830	$1.30	23d	1	1.10mi
10531 Kings Row Dr Avon, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$1,661	$1.54	1d	11	1.34mi
10341 Buckshire Ln Indianapolis, IN	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,779	$1.42	43d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 1533-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $195,000 Active 1533-char remark
3. 2007-09-28
   soldstatus $76,500 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL TOWNHOUSE CONDO W/9' CEILINGS AND LARGE WINDOWS CREATE AN OPEN & BRIGHT FLOOR PLAN.KITCHEN HAS BREAKFAST BAR AND BUILT-IN MICROWAVE.LARGE MASTER HAS 2 CLOSETS.CONVENIENT UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY.GOOD STORAGE SPACE.1 C AR ATTACHED GARAGE.CUTE PATIO IN FRONT.QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD,CLOSE TO EVERYTHING.WATER INCLUDED IN MAINTENANCE FEE.

4. 2007-07-03
   listed $79,900 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL TOWNHOUSE CONDO W/9' CEILINGS AND LARGE WINDOWS CREATE AN OPEN & BRIGHT FLOOR PLAN.KITCHEN HAS BREAKFAST BAR AND BUILT-IN MICROWAVE.LARGE MASTER HAS 2 CLOSETS.CONVENIENT UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY.GOOD STORAGE SPACE.1 C AR ATTACHED GARAGE.CUTE PATIO IN FRONT.QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD,CLOSE TO EVERYTHING.WATER INCLUDED IN MAINTENANCE FEE.

5. 2005-09-03
   historical
6. 2005-03-03
   listed $79,900
7. 2002-07-30
   historical
8. 2002-01-30
   listed $84,900
9. 2000-08-14
   historical
10. 2000-02-14
    listed $96,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,934 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,934 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,934
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $-110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1800270
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $75,987
• Composite: 46.93/100
• National rank: #2362
• State rank: #32 of 301 in IN

Livability — Avon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #4686

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hendricks County · 143,373 people
• City population: 43,353
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 43,353
• Household income: $103,485
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Hendricks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,418 people
• By 2030: 201,494 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 228,487 · +21.9%
• By 2050: 253,068 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 308,920 · +64.8%
• By 2100: 336,510 · +79.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendricks

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.4% · R 59.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -23.4pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.05%
• Current HPI: 203.9226
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+102.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $195,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $76,500 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-03 Listed $79,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-03 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-03 Listed $79,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-30 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-30 Listed $84,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-14 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-02-14 Listed $96,500 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,934 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.