7020 W Lemon St · Odessa, TX 79766

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1982 2.24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Endless possibilities on 2.24 acres. 3 septic tanks, water well and electricity connected.

Key facts

• Water well
• 3 septic tanks
• 2.24 acres

Tags

• 2.24 ACRES
• 3 SEPTIC TANKS
• WATER WELL
• ELECTRICITY CONNECTED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $805 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.56%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $87,293
• Equity at exit: $89,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $219,944
• Equity at exit: $154,229

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79766

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,259/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $805

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $179,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $225,000 Active 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Endless possibilities on 2.24 acres. 3 septic tanks, water well and electricity connected.

18. 1999-04-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,259 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,669/yr (+$139/mo · 132.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,259
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $7,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,798
• After-tax cash flow: $7,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 10,712

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 25% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Current HPI: 222.3497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $225,000 ODMLS
• 1999-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,259 · +28.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.