Sentosa Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$281,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 369 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 368 days

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,529.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 369 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $248,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 369 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.75%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,529
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -4.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8738 Jade Hill Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,770 (+8%)	1mo	$349,990	$198	85
2415 Imperial Jade Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,573 (-4%)	9mo	$249,990	$159	84
8918 Ice Quartz Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-2%)	6mo	$303,900	$188	80
8930 Ice Quartz Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+8%)	4mo	$313,900	$177	75
7723 Montana Ruby Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,822 (+11%)	8mo	$326,990	$179	62
8902 Ice Quartz Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-14%)	4mo	$290,900	$205	62
2419 Jasper Breeze Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-14%)	7mo	$277,990	$197	56
2511 Night Emerald Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,736 (+6%)	7mo	$292,990	$169	51
2527 Night Emerald Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+8%)	8mo	$298,990	$168	47
2507 Night Emerald Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+14%)	7mo	$312,990	$167	32
2522 American Ruby Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+14%)	8mo	$308,990	$165	30
2610 American Ruby Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+14%)	8mo	$307,990	$164	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,726
• Equity at exit: $43,915

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-49,110
• Equity at exit: $25,465

Cash invested: $82,468 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,816 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,418/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $294,529

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $291	+0% $189	+5% $87	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $78	+0% $189	+5% $300	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $264	base $189	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,632
• Closing costs: $8,836
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	18d	1	0.12mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	45d	1	0.18mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	23d	1	0.90mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	0d	1	1.25mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	45d	1	1.33mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	23d	1	1.44mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	1.45mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	45d	1	1.46mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	45d	7	1.49mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	0d	6	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $281,990 Active 369 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $281,990 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $281,990 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,990 Active 364 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,990 Active 363 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,990 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,990 Active 360 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $281,990 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $281,990 Active 356 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $281,990 Active 355 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,990 Active 352 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,990 Active 351 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $281,990 Active 350 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $281,990 Active 349 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $281,990 Active 348 DOM
16. 2025-06-18
    listed $281,990 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,498
• − Property taxes: −$4,418
• − Insurance: −$1,473
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,703
• − Management: −$2,703
• − Depreciation: −$8,568
• Taxable loss: −$2,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$618
• After-tax cash flow: $2,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Listed $281,990 Zillow