507 Bailey St · St. Marys, GA 31558

$194,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1950 0.29 ac lot $155/sqft · 35% below area Est $300k · 35% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

507 Bailey St St. Marys, GA is a 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath with 1260 sq ft. Property features a fenced in back yard with lots of space. Within walking distance to downtown restaurants.

Key facts

• Fenced in back yard
• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.9% in St. Marys — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Camden County (town): math 56% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #9 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 508 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 383 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.04%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,470
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -35.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 Bailey St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (+1%)	1mo	$293,550	$230	88
707 Mahan St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (+5%)	7mo	$345,000	$261	70
104 Bishop Cir	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	0mo	$325,000	$271	59
107 Borrell Blvd	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (-6%)	4mo	$210,000	$176	56
310 Wheeler St	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,441 (+14%)	12mo	$495,000	$344	45
109 E Church St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+5%)	22mo	$325,000	$246	42
1011 Dilworth St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,137 (-10%)	2mo	$235,000	$207	42
202 Borrell Blvd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-9%)	12mo	$234,000	$203	34
128 Borrell Blvd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (-7%)	23mo	$299,900	$257	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,483
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,052
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31558

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 508
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,121 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,391/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $445	+0% $390	+5% $335	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $306	+0% $390	+5% $474	+10% $558
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $440	base $390	+0.5pp $339	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 Bailey St Saint Marys, GA	3.0	1.0	1296	$2,800	$2.16	45d	1	0.01mi
501 Bailey St Saint Marys, GA	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,600	$2.25	18d	1	0.04mi
600 Margaret St Saint Marys, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	45d	1	0.11mi
604 Wheeler St Saint Marys, GA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,850	$2.03	5d	1	0.36mi
900 Dilworth St Saint Marys, GA	2.0	1.5	940	$1,620	$1.72	25d	3	0.53mi
601 Norris St Apt A St Marys, GA	2.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	45d	1	0.59mi
207 Saint Patrick St Unit B St Marys, GA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.68mi
208 Gunter St Saint Marys, GA	3.0	2.0	1196	$3,500	$2.93	45d	1	0.85mi
212 Gunter St Saint Marys, GA	3.0	1.5	1226	$1,775	$1.45	25d	1	0.87mi
212 Gunter St Saint Marys, GA	3.0	1.5	1226	$1,775	$1.45	45d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $194,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $205,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    507 Bailey St St. Marys, GA is a 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath with 1260 sq ft. Property features a fenced in back yard with lots of space. Within walking distance to downtown restaurants.

17. 2026-04-12
    listed $215,000 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    507 Bailey St St. Marys, GA is a 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath with 1260 sq ft. Property features a fenced in back yard with lots of space. Within walking distance to downtown restaurants.

18. 2022-06-02
    soldstatus $258,000
19. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus $258,000 Sold 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Cute little bungalow with great potential. Located in historic St. Marys, just a couple blocks from the waterfront.

20. 2022-04-19
    status Under Contract 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Cute little bungalow with great potential. Located in historic St. Marys, just a couple blocks from the waterfront.

21. 2022-04-19
    listed $258,000 New 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Cute little bungalow with great potential. Located in historic St. Marys, just a couple blocks from the waterfront.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,793 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$33/mo · 28.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$1,391
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $1,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$391
• After-tax cash flow: $4,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County
• NCES district ID: 1300780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,668
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2331
• State rank: #9 of 174 in GA

Livability — St. Marys

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Marys, GA
• County: Camden County · 46,661 people
• Metro: St. Marys, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,591
• Household income: $74,268
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,358 people
• By 2030: 54,841 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 54,295 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 51,529 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 42,990 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 33,094 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.7) · D 31.9% · R 67.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.5pp · 2024: -35.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.7 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+23.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.90%
• Current HPI: 289.1157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: St. Marys, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $205,000 GIAR
• 2026-04-12 Listed $215,000 GIAR
• 2022-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $258,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) $258,000 GAMLS
• 2022-04-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-04-19 Listed $258,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+31.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,391 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.