6 Riverbend Rd · Palenville, NY 12477

$274,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1997 2.08 ac lot $281/sqft · 25% below area Est $489k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision to life! High-potential house, looking for a new owner to bring the project to completion. Most major construction work is finished, giving new owners the chance to customize the house to their tastes. House is 15 minutes to both Woodstock and Saugerties village. Close proximity to hiking trails and ski mountains.

Key facts

• 2.08 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-350 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.2% in Palenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,125 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $275k implies a 937% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,060 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,147
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -43.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-66,550
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-85,477
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12477

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,550/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,927

Max offer price $213,060

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $274,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $274,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $289,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $299,000 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Bring your vision to life! High-potential house, looking for a new owner to bring the project to completion. Most major construction work is finished, giving new owners the chance to customize the house to their tastes. House is 15 minutes to both Woodstock and Saugerties village. Close proximity to hiking trails and ski mountains.

19. 1990-03-01
    soldstatus $26,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,550 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,098 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$3,550
• − Insurance: −$6,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$8,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,114
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saugerties Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,897
• Composite: 41.3/100
• National rank: #3515
• State rank: #419 of 590 in NY

Livability — Palenville

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1125
• US rank: #23193

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ulster County · 56,183 people
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,066
• Household income: $80,861
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 725.0

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.47%
• Current HPI: 327.9975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1028.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $299,000 HVCRMLS
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,550 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.