6417 Saddletree Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33544

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1973 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL! This property is a cash buy only property and is being sold As-Is. Buyer will be responsible for clearing the lot. Once cleared the lot would be great for a new home.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,620 (source: public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking information provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Faces east; Fixer condition
• Construction: Metal frame and metal siding construction; Metal roof; Other foundation; Built on approximately 0.52 acre (lot reported as 1/2 to less than 1)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Paved lot; Mature landscaping; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Quail Hollow Elementary School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 543 students, 61% FRL); Cypress Creek High School (math 48% / reading 56%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,851 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $125k implies a 324% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.68%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,016
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6527 Angus Valley Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$290,000	$224	87
6416 Candlewood Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$263,250	$211	86
6401 Angus Valley Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$275,000	$191	75
6238 Angus Valley Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	11mo	$265,000	$189	74
6735 Ravenwood St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	1mo	$225,000	$160	68
26223 Chianina Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	3mo	$231,000	$171	66
6449 Wendell Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	17mo	$295,000	$195	58
26546 Glenwood Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,225 (-9%)	4mo	$145,000	$118	53
26418 Dayflower Blvd	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	6mo	$145,000	$116	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $44,624
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $104,413
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33544

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $414/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $1,128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,199	-5% $1,164	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,093	+10% $1,057
Rent	-10% $941	-5% $1,035	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,222	+10% $1,315
Rate	-1.0pp $1,191	-0.5pp $1,160	base $1,128	+0.5pp $1,096	+1.0pp $1,063

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Address Not Available PL Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,960	$1.94	0d	25	0.84mi
27560 York Harbor Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,142	$1.46	0d	7	0.88mi
5561 Post Oak Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,055	$1.96	0d	11	0.92mi
5291 Post Oak Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,439	$2.28	3d	14	1.07mi
5541 Dark Star Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,450	$1.45	3d	1	1.31mi
6561 Halo Bend Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,385	$1.37	25d	1	1.34mi
6601 Halo Bend Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1885	$2,275	$1.21	0d	4	1.37mi
5930 War Admiral Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	19d	1	1.40mi
28240 Wave Crest Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,395	$1.38	23d	1	1.41mi
27604 Pleasure Ride Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,195	$1.45	25d	1	1.43mi
27620 Pleasure Ride Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1513	$2,500	$1.65	25d	1	1.46mi
28346 Wave Crest Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,395	$1.38	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   status Active
3. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-29
   listed $125,000 Active
5. 2006-12-12
   historical
6. 2005-07-15
   listed $99,500
7. 1989-01-01
   soldstatus $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $414 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 150.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$414
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,273
• − Management: −$2,273
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $12,187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,925
• After-tax cash flow: $10,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,901
• Household income: $104,573
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.76%
• Current HPI: 266.5191
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+323.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-15 Listed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $414 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.