4411 Post Oak Rd · Saks, AL 36206

$94,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1950 5.00 ac lot ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a sprawling 7.02+/- acres of land, this timeless ranch-style rock home in Saks from 1950 offers 1,642 +/-sq ft of inviting living. This home will require repairs and upgrades Included in the sale is an additional 2.02 site. You can view the additional parcel with this information: 4411 Post Oak Road Additional Land Parcel Number: 17-06-24-0-004-060.000 PPIN: 055640 2.5 acres

Key facts

• 7.5 acres
• 2.5 acres
• 5 acre lot

Tags

• 7.5 ACRES
• 2.5 ACRES
• RANCH-STYLE ROCK HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 5.4% in Saks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#413 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Calhoun County (rural): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #46 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Saks Elementary School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #331 of 627 statewide, top 57%, 459 students, 86% FRL); Saks High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 340 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 49% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calhoun County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,830 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,114
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1612 Mountain Oak Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-7%)	7mo	$222,000	$145	64
4404 Calhoun Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-12%)	2mo	$165,000	$114	59
1306 Barry Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-9%)	20mo	$155,000	$104	57
1425 High Oak Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-8%)	10mo	$172,000	$114	56
4809 Post Oak Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,444 (-12%)	14mo	$169,000	$117	53
4914 Ashlawn Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-15%)	0mo	$189,900	$136	52
1412 High Oak Dr	0.37mi	3/3.5	1,851 (+13%)	9mo	$215,900	$117	48
4516 Asbury Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,415 (-14%)	4mo	$139,900	$99	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,717
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $34,319
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36206

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $959/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $862

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $372	+0% $345	+5% $319	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $243	-5% $294	+0% $345	+5% $397	+10% $448
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $369	base $345	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-11-05
   soldstatus $70,000
2. 2025-10-15
   status Pending
3. 2025-08-04
   listed $94,500 Active
4. 2025-07-10
   soldstatus $143,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $959 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $959 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$959
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $2,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$679
• After-tax cash flow: $3,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calhoun County
• NCES district ID: 0100540
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,891
• Composite: 28.91/100
• National rank: #6635
• State rank: #46 of 129 in AL

Livability — Saks

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #22683

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saks, AL
• County: Calhoun County · 71,763 people
• City population: 11,172
• Metro: Anniston-Oxford, AL
• Population (ZIP): 11,172
• Household income: $51,116
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 300.0

Population outlook (Calhoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 109,765 people
• By 2030: 105,708 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 96,192 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 86,413 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 63,467 · -42.2%
• By 2100: 44,704 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calhoun

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 27.2% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.5pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+31.9 2008: R+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.39%
• Current HPI: 175.4422
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Anniston-Oxford, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-51.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-15 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $94,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $143,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $959 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.