6788 SW 149th Lane Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Land · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot $169/sqft · 9% above area Est $274k · 9% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Exquisite custom cabinetry throughout the kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry room adds elegance and refined craftsmanship to every space. Ideally situated in a prime location, this beautifully designed residence showcases a modern aesthetic with generous living spaces throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for family gatherings and effortless entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. Enjoy the convenience of a large island, abundant shaker-style cabinetry, and elegant quartz countertops with waterfall edges. A stylish backsplash and feature wall add a luxury touch to the space. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with quartz countertops, and the primary bathroom features dual sinks and a glass-enclosed shower for a spa-like experience. Luxury vinyl tile flooring flows throughout the entire home, providing durability, easy maintenance, and a seamless, cohesive look. Don’t miss this opportunity to experience modern comfort and style in a convenient Ocala location. Schedule your private showing today! Note: One or more photos have been virtually staged and may be from a model home.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Large island

Tags

• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-849/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,426 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,039
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 9.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,497
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-82,350
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $287,396

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $14	+0% $-71	+5% $-498	+10% $-602
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-155	+0% $-71	+5% $13	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $5	base $-71	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 SW 152nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,850	$1.04	14d	1	0.01mi
6949 SW 152nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	14d	1	0.18mi
15401 SW 65th Terrace Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	21d	1	0.20mi
14983 SW 65th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,995	$1.92	14d	1	0.37mi
746 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	21d	1	0.40mi
15137 SW 61st Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	21d	1	0.59mi
585 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,165	$1.13	14d	1	0.70mi
15284 SW 60th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	14d	1	0.72mi
820 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1747	$1,995	$1.14	21d	1	1.00mi
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	14d	1	1.12mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	21d	1	1.21mi
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	14d	1	1.22mi
14576 SW 75th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1936	$1,945	$1.00	14d	1	1.27mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	14d	1	1.46mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $299,900 Pending 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $299,900 1338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1338 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Exquisite custom cabinetry throughout the kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry room adds elegance and refined craftsmanship to every space. Ideally situated in a prime location, this beautifully designed residence showcases a modern aesthetic with generous living spaces throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for family gatherings and effortless entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. Enjoy the convenience of a large island, abundant shaker-style cabinetry, and elegant quartz countertops with waterfall edges. A stylish backsplash and feature wall add a luxury touch to the space. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with quartz countertops, and the primary bathroom features dual sinks and a glass-enclosed shower for a spa-like experience. Luxury vinyl tile flooring flows throughout the entire home, providing durability, easy maintenance, and a seamless, cohesive look. Don’t miss this opportunity to experience modern comfort and style in a convenient Ocala location. Schedule your private showing today! Note: One or more photos have been virtually staged and may be from a model home.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $304,900 1338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1338 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Exquisite custom cabinetry throughout the kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry room adds elegance and refined craftsmanship to every space. Ideally situated in a prime location, this beautifully designed residence showcases a modern aesthetic with generous living spaces throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for family gatherings and effortless entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. Enjoy the convenience of a large island, abundant shaker-style cabinetry, and elegant quartz countertops with waterfall edges. A stylish backsplash and feature wall add a luxury touch to the space. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with quartz countertops, and the primary bathroom features dual sinks and a glass-enclosed shower for a spa-like experience. Luxury vinyl tile flooring flows throughout the entire home, providing durability, easy maintenance, and a seamless, cohesive look. Don’t miss this opportunity to experience modern comfort and style in a convenient Ocala location. Schedule your private showing today! Note: One or more photos have been virtually staged and may be from a model home.

18. 2026-02-11
    listed $307,500 Active 1338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1338 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Exquisite custom cabinetry throughout the kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry room adds elegance and refined craftsmanship to every space. Ideally situated in a prime location, this beautifully designed residence showcases a modern aesthetic with generous living spaces throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for family gatherings and effortless entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. Enjoy the convenience of a large island, abundant shaker-style cabinetry, and elegant quartz countertops with waterfall edges. A stylish backsplash and feature wall add a luxury touch to the space. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with quartz countertops, and the primary bathroom features dual sinks and a glass-enclosed shower for a spa-like experience. Luxury vinyl tile flooring flows throughout the entire home, providing durability, easy maintenance, and a seamless, cohesive look. Don’t miss this opportunity to experience modern comfort and style in a convenient Ocala location. Schedule your private showing today! Note: One or more photos have been virtually staged and may be from a model home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,874/yr (+$156/mo · 304.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,494
• After-tax cash flow: $645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $304,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $307,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $615 · +86.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.